[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N40W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 12W and 14W, and
within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 32W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front is nearing the Texas coast this morning.
Fresh southerly flow prevails ahead of the front over the NW Gulf
based on recent buoy observations, along with some patchy fog.
Seas range from 5-7 ft in this region. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate SE winds dominate the eastern Gulf under the influence of
deep-layer ridging east of Florida.

The cold front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon. The
front will reach from southwest Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico
by late Mon, before stalling from the Straits of Florida to weak
low pressure near Tampico, Mexico by late Tue. The low and
accompanying front will dissipate Wed and Thu as they lift
northward over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layer ridging prevails north of the area this morning. Some
isolated showers continue near and south of Puerto Rico. Recent
scatterometer data shows fresh NE to E winds over the south-
central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela, with strong winds likely
found near the coast of Colombia along with seas 8 ft or greater.
Elsewhere, moderate trades dominate the rest of the basin with
seas less than 8 ft. Altimeter data from 09-10 UTC this morning
showed 3-5 ft seas east of 70W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through
tonight. These winds will diminish slightly through Tue as the
high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile, long-
period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic passages
and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and Windward
Islands through mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N23W and extends
southwest to 24N28W, where it transitions to a stationary front
and continues to 19N35W to 17N50W to 18N58W. A shear line extends
from 18N58W to north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Recent scatterometer
data highlights the fresh NE to E winds located poleward of the
front/shear line. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
within 60 nm north of the front between 53W and 58W, with scattered
showers noted along the rest of the front and north of the shear
line offshore of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, a
broad surface high pressure ridge extends across the northern
waters, anchored by 1024 mb high pressure near 32N72W and 1023 mb
high pressure near 32N36W.

Northerly swell encompasses much of the region east of 60W, with
10-14 ft seas noted in recent altimeter data over the waters north
of the front and east of 45W. Seas are running 8-10 ft in N to NE
swell over the waters north of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico,
and the Leeward Islands.

High pressure across the forecast waters will shift east of the
area through Tue ahead of a cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast Mon night. The front will continue to move
southeastward through Tue, reaching from near Bermuda to the
Straits of Florida by early Wed before stalling and weakening
along roughly 22N through Thu.

$$
Reinhart
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