[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N40W to the coast of
South America near 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection is along
the ITCZ from 01N-05N between 15W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 27N89W to
an embedded 1013 mb low near 25N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula near
20N89W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A few
showers are also noted over the NW coast of Florida. Fresh E
winds prevail across the eastern half of the basin. The latest
ASCAT pass shows strong E winds from 25N-30N between 83W-88W.
Light to gentle winds prevail west of 90W.

Expect patchy dense fog over the NW Gulf Sat morning. The Gulf
trough will slowly move to the western Gulf through late tonight
while dissipating. Fresh to strong east winds over the eastern
Gulf north of 25N will become mainly east to southeast moderate to
fresh winds on Sat, then southeast moderate winds over the
eastern Gulf Sat night. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will
set up over the northwest Gulf on Sat in advance of a cold front
that is expected to move over NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to
strong north winds will follow the front as it reaches from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico early on Mon and from
near Punta Gorda, Florida to the northwest part of the Yucatan
Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche Mon night. The front will
begin to weaken as it reaches from northwestern Cuba to the
northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tue afternoon and exit
the area Tue evening. High pressure will build eastward over the
northern Gulf in the wake of the front as a trough and low
pressure develops along the coast of Mexico. The resultant tight
gradient is expected to increase the east winds to fresh to strong
speeds over the far western Gulf on Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands near
18N62W to 15N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
trough axis including the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere,
scattered moderate convection is inland over Costa Rica, Panama,
and N Colombia. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. ASCAT data
depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin generally south
of 16N, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage.
Elsewhere north of 16N, mainly gentle winds are over the area,
except for south of the Dominican Republic, where fresh NE winds
prevail.

High pressure building north of the area will support increasing
winds and seas over much of the south central Caribbean through
Sun. The winds will diminish slightly early next week as the high
pressure shifts eastward. Meanwhile, long- period north swell will
propagate through the Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic
waters off the Leeward and Windward Islands Sat through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N71W. A cold
front is over the E Atlantic from 31N34W to an embedded 1006 mb
low near 28N40W to 23N50W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the front. A reinforcing cold front is further
W from 31N41W to 26N50W to 28N67W. Broken cold air stratocumulus
clouds are N of this front. ASCAT shows gale force winds north of
31N between 43W-50W.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will begin to shift
southeastward tonight through early next while weakening. This
will weaken the tight gradient over the central waters, with the
present fresh to strong east winds there diminishing to mainly
moderate speeds late Mon. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds
will develop over the far northwest waters on Mon as a cold front
approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front will move off
that coast on Mon afternoon, reach from near 31N78W to Vero Beach,
Florida late Mon night, from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to
the Straits of Florida Tue afternoon and from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Wed afternoon into
early evening. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are
expected behind the front over the far northern waters.

$$
Formosa
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