[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271700
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1200 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to
05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 04N40W to 06N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between
18W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico along 89W from
23N-27N. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A few
showers are also noted near the west coast of central Florida and
near the coast of SE Louisiana. Moist and relatively warm east
flow is supporting patchy fog over the north central and northwest
Gulf. Fresh E winds prevail across the eastern half of the basin.
The latest ASCAT pass from around 27/1500 UTC shows strong E
winds from 26N-28N between 84W-87W. Light to gentle winds prevail
west of 90W.

Fresh easterly winds persist over the eastern Gulf between a
trough over the south central Gulf and high pressure over the
western Atlantic. The trough will drift into the western Gulf
later today then dissipate tonight. Fresh to occasional strong
southerly return flow will set up over the northwest Gulf Sat,
ahead of a cold front expected to enter the northwest Gulf Sat
night and Sun. Fresh to strong wind will follow the front as it
reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Mon,
before stalling from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche
by late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands near
18N63W to 15N71W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough
axis, mainly E of 67W, including over the northern Leeward
Islands. The 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the
period that ended 27/1200 UTC...according to the Pan American
Temperature and Precipitation Tables...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are
1.65 inches in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Fair weather
prevails elsewhere. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh trades
across the basin generally south of 16N, and moderate to fresh NE
winds in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere north of 16N, mainly
gentle winds are over the area, except for south of the Dominican
Republic, where fresh NE winds prevail.

High pressure building north of the area will support increasing
winds and seas over much of the south central Caribbean late today
through Sun. The winds will diminish slightly early next week as
the high pressure shifts eastward. Meanwhile northerly swell will
move into Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off
the Leeward and Windward Islands Sat through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 mb low is near 28N43W. A cold front extends from the low
to 25N50W to 24N57W. A shear line continues from 24N57W to 24N73W
to 25N76W. Strong NE winds extend from the shear line to 28N.
Strong N winds are north of the cold front. A warm front extends
from the low to 30N40W, with a cold front continuing northeastward
from 30N40W to 31N34W to the Azores. Numerous moderate with
embedded isolated strong convection is within the area bounded by
the points 32N40W to 25N45W to 32N30W to 32N40W. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere within the area bounded by 32N40W to
23N49W to 25N35W to 32N29W to 32N40W.

Another cold front enters the waters near 32N42W and extends to
29N53W to 29N61W to 31N65W. Near gale NW winds are north of the
front to 31N, east of 55W. ASCAT shows gale force winds north of
31N between 44W-51W.

A surface trough extends from the northern Leeward Islands near
18N63W to 22N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-22N
between 54W-58W. Scattered showers are elsewhere along the trough
axis. A surface ridge axis extends from the Canary Islands to
19N40W to 16N60W, leading to fair weather and gentle winds in that
area.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic will support
fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 27N west of 60W through Sat
night. The high pressure will shift east Sun into Mon, allowing
these winds to diminish. Winds off northeast Florida will increase
and veer to more south to southwest Sun into Mon ahead of a cold
front expected to move off the Florida coast by late Mon. The
front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by
late Tue.

$$
Hagen
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