[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to near 06N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the central Gulf of Mexico from
29N90W to 24N90W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail across eastern half of the
basin, as noted in latest scatterometer data, while light to
gentle winds prevail west of 90W.

Fresh easterly winds persist over the eastern Gulf. The moist and
relatively warm east flow also is supporting patchy fog over the
north central and northwest Gulf. The trough will drift into the
western Gulf today then dissipate by tonight. Fresh to occasional
strong southerly return flow will set up over the northwest Gulf
Sat, ahead of a cold front expected to enter the northwest Gulf
Sat night and Sun. Fresh to strong wind will follow the front as
it reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico Mon,
before stalling from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of
Campeche by late Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from 18N63W to 16N74W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front. Fair weather prevails
elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the basin, while moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted over the Windward Passage.

High pressure building north of the area will support
increased winds and seas over much of the south central Caribbean
through Sun. The winds will diminish slightly early next week as
the high pressure shifts eastward. Meanwhile, northerly swell
will move into Atlantic passages and the tropical Atlantic waters
off the Leeward and Windward Islands Sat through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the central Atlantic extending from 31N34W
to a 1012 mb low near 25N56W. Another cold front extends southwest from
the low to 18N63W. A surface trough extends west from the low to
25N73W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the trough. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along the front between 34W-50W.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic will continue to
support fresh to strong easterly winds south of 27N through Sat
night. The high pressure will shift east Sun into Mon, allowing
these winds to diminish. However, will veer more south to
southwest and increase late Sat into Mon off northeast Florida
ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Florida coast by
late Mon. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida by late Tue night.

$$

ERA
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