[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front is over the central Atlantic extending from 31N35W
to 28N44W,then becomes stationary from that point to a 1012 mb low
near 26N53W. Scattered moderate convection prevail along the
frontal boundary. Gale-force winds are noted north of 30N between
34W- 35W. Seas in this area will range between 14-18 ft. The gale
is expected to end at 27/0600 UTC. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to the coast of N
Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the ITCZ between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the central Gulf of Mexico from
28N90W to 24N91W to 22N88W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of
the trough. Fresh E winds prevails across the basin, as noted in
latest scatterometer data.

The surface trough will drift W from the central Gulf into the
western Gulf by Fri, then weaken and dissipate by Sat. Fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds are expected over the NE Gulf tonight
and Fri. Fresh to locally strong S return flow will set up over
the NW Gulf Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the NW
Gulf Sat night and Sun. Then, fresh to strong N winds will follow
the front, which will extend from the Florida Big Bend to near
Veracruz, Mexico on Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening cold front extends from 18N65W to 15N73W. Scattered
showers are noted along the front. Fair weather prevails
elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades
across the basin, while moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted over the Windward Passage.

Light and variable winds will prevail over the western Caribbean
through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase over the central
Caribbean through the weekend as high pressure builds over the
western Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the central Atlantic.

A 1012 mb surface low is centered near 26N53W. A cold front
extends from the low to 18N64W. Scattered showers prevail along
the front. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
basin.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic will
support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the southern waters
through Sat night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected east
of Florida Sat night through Sun night. A cold front will push E
from Florida Mon night.

$$

ERA
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