[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280523
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues from 06N15W to 03N32W to the
coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 15W-35W. There are isolated
showers off the Brazil coast near the ITCZ in addition to showers
moving off the Liberia coast just south of the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb low is located in the central Gulf near 25N89W with a
trough extending along the low from 21N-27N. Isolated showers are
along this feature. Scattered showers are also moving across the
SE Gulf. Upper level ridging covers most of the Gulf which is
inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts
fresh to strong easterly winds in the NE Gulf and gentle to
moderate easterly winds in the southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
winds in the western Gulf are beginning to turn ESE ahead of an
incoming upper level trough.

The trough and low will slowly move to the western Gulf through
late tonight while dissipating. Fresh to strong east winds over
the eastern Gulf will become mainly east to southeast moderate to
fresh winds on Saturday, then southeast moderate winds over the
eastern Gulf Saturday night. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow will set up over the northwest Gulf on Saturday in advance
of a cold front that is expected to move over NW Gulf Saturday
night into Sunday. Fresh to strong north winds will follow the
front as it reaches from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz,
Mexico early on Monday and from near Punta Gorda, Florida to the
northwest part of the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of
Campeche Monday night. The front will begin to weaken as it
reaches from northwestern Cuba to the northeast part of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon and exit the area Tuesday
evening. High pressure will build eastward over the northern Gulf
in the wake of the front as a trough and low pressure develops
along the coast of Mexico. The resultant tight gradient is
expected to increase the east winds to fresh to strong speeds over
the far western Gulf on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level ridging covers the Caribbean, bringing subsidence to
the area. Most of the Caribbean remains quiet. However, isolated
convection is noted 70 nm SE of Jamaica. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen in the SW Caribbean, S of 11N between 76W-
84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trade
winds in the central Caribbean with fresh ENE winds in the SW
Caribbean. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are seen throughout
the rest of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will allow for fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean through
Sunday night. These winds will diminish slightly early next week
as the high pressure shifts southeastward and weakens. Meanwhile,
long-period north swell will propagate through the Atlantic
passages and the tropical Atlantic waters off the Leeward and
Windward Islands Saturday through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1004 mb low is analyzed in the central Atlantic near 30N36W. A
cold front extends along the low, entering the waters near 31N35W
and stretches westward to 23N44W to 21N61W. The tail-end of the
front is dissipating, from 21N61W to 23N70W. A reinforcing cold
front follows, entering the waters near 31N37W to 25N47W to
25N61W. The tail-end of this boundary is also dissipating from
25N61W to 27N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and
ahead of the primary cold front from 20N-31N between 31W-45W.
Light showers are seen along the reinforcing cold front. High
pressure covers the rest of the central and western Atlantic
anchored by a 1028 mb high near 35N63W. The latest scatterometer
data depicts northerly near gale winds south of the primary cold
front from 22N-24N between 56W-75W. Strong to near gale southerly
winds are also noted ahead of the reinforcing cold front with
strong northerly winds behind this front, between 37W-53W.

High pressure over the area will shift southeastward through
early next week while weakening. This will weaken the tight
gradient over the central waters, with the present fresh to strong
east winds there diminishing to mainly moderate speeds late Monday.
Fresh to strong south to southwest winds will develop over the
far northwest waters on Monday as a cold front approaches the
southeastern U.S. coast. The front will move off that coast on
Monday afternoon, reach from near 31N78W to Vero Beach, Florida
late Monday night, from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to the
Straits of Florida Tuesday afternoon and from near Bermuda to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Wednesday afternoon
into early evening. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are
expected behind the front over the far northern waters.

$$
AKR
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