[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1003 mb low is near 31N79W. An occluded front extends E to a
second low, 1002 mb, near 32N72W. A cold front extends from the
second low to the central Bahamas near 23N74W to eastern Cuba near
21N76.5W. The latest ASCAT pass indicates that gales currently
extend from the second low in the SE quadrant, southward to 30N
and eastward to 69W. The first low currently does not have any
gales south of 31N. However, winds to gale force will develop
later today into this evening west of the first low as it moves
toward the ESE. Meanwhile, winds will decrease to below gale force
this evening in association with the second low. The Gale Warning
for the first low continues into early Wed afternoon, before
winds decrease to below gale force later Wed afternoon. Please
refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
further details.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1007 mb low is forecast to be over the Atlantic near 31N54W on
Wed 25/1200 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast to be north of 28N
between 43W-55W on Wed. The low will continue eastward, bringing
gales north of 28N between 36W-48W Wed night into early Thu
morning. Seas will range from 10-14 ft, and as high as 12-16 ft
Wed night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 03N40W to the coast of
NE Brazil near 00N51W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong
convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-
45W. Similar convection is seen from 02N-04N between 49W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered ridging covers the western Gulf, leading to quiet
weather and relatively weak wind speeds. A complex 1003 mb low
pressure over the western Atlantic near 31N79W is keeping fresh to
locally strong NW winds over the eastern Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Wed. A weak
surface trough will drift westward across the central and western
Gulf Wed through Fri, with fresh E to SE winds on the E side of
the trough. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf
Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 24/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from eastern Cuba near
21N76W to 17N80W to 14N82W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
extending from 30-120 nm east of the front from eastern Cuba to
the SE Caribbean. Similar convection is in the far SW Caribbean,
west of a line from 14N79W to 09N80.5W. ASCAT data show fresh NW
to N winds behind the front, while fresh ESE trades prevail over
the eastern and central Caribbean.

The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to the SW
Caribbean near 11N81W tonight, then dissipate as it drifts
eastward Wed and Wed night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected west of the front near the coast of Nicaragua through
Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across the central Caribbean Wed
and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect.

To the east of the west Atlantic cold front described in the
section above, scattered to numerous moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm east of the cold
front, north of 23N. From 26.5N-31N, scattered to numerous
moderate convection is within 300 nm E of the front. Similar
convection extends as far E as 60W from 29N-31N, due to a warm
front that extends from the low near 32N72W to 30N63W. Additional
scattered moderate convection is from 20N-22N between 72W-76W,
including over eastern Cuba. Strong W winds cover the area from
the NW Bahamas to the coast of southern and central Florida.

To the east, a 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
29N53W. A cold front enters the area near 32N27W and extends to
29N27W to 24N31W to 21N38W. Scattered showers are seen extending
between 60-240 nm ahead of the front.

The cold front extending from 31N73W to eastern Cuba will push
eastward and reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage tonight. A
complex low pressure system will shift eastward across the
northern waters through Wed night, with NE gales expected E of NE
Florida today, and NE of the Bahamas on Wed. Fresh NE to E winds
are expected elsewhere across the region Thu through Fri night.

$$
Hagen
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