[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1009 mb low is forecast to be over the Atlantic near 31N54W on
Wed 25/1200 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast to be from 28N-
30N between 53W-55W, with seas ranging between 10-12 ft. These
conditions are expected to continue moving east following the
low system. For more details, refer to the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 06N12W to
04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm
north of the ITCZ between 24W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1003 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic. A tight
pressure gradient prevails across the eastern half of the basin
supporting fresh to strong northerly winds east of 90W. Surface
ridging prevails across the western half of the basin. Moderate to
fresh winds are noted north of 25N between 90W-93W. To the south,
a surface trough extends across the Yucatan Channel with scattered
showers.

High pressure ridging will prevail across the basin through early
Wed. A weak surface trough will drift westward across the central
and western Gulf Wed through Fri, with better marine conditions
expected.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba near 21N78W to NE Honduras
near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Further south, scattered showers prevail south of 13N and W of
80W. ASCAT data suggest moderate to fresh north to northwest winds
behind the front in the NW Caribbean, while moderate to fresh
trades prevail over the remainder of the basin.

The front will weaken and become stationary tonight and Wed then
dissipate Wed night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected
west of the front near the coast of Nicaragua tonight and Wed.
Winds and seas will diminish across the central Caribbean Wed and
Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect.

A 1003 mb surface low near 32N79W extends a cold front south to
central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along and east of the front between 67W-74W. To the east, a 1021
mb high is over the central Atlantic near 28N53W. A 1004 mb
surface low is over the east Atlantic near 37N28W. A cold front
extends from the low to 21N38W, then becomes weak to 21N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of the low center.

The cold front east of Florida will push eastward through
tonight. The complex low pressure system will shift eastward
across the northern waters through Wed night, with NE gales
expected E of NE Florida tonight, and NE of the Bahamas on Wed.
Fresh NE to E winds are expected elsewhere across the region Thu
through Fri night.

$$

ERA
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