[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...WEST ATLANTIC GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A 1006 mb low is centered near 29N78W with a cold front
extending south. Gale-force winds are from 29N-31N between 70W-
72W. Gale- force wind conditions are forecast to continue until
24/0600 UTC.
Seas in this area are ranging between 9 to 11 ft. For more
details, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for further
details.

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1009 mb low is forecast to be over the Atlantic near 31N54W on
Wed 25/1200 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast to be from 28N-
30N between 53W-55W, with seas ranging between 10-12 ft. These
conditions are expected to continue moving east following the
low system. For more details, refer to the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N12W to
05N16W. The ITCZ extends from 05N16W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 75
nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb surface low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico
near 29N83W. This low is supported by an upper level low is
centered over N Florida near 30N84W. Surface ridging prevails
across the western half of the basin.

Low pres will head E into the western Atlantic today. High
pressure ridging building into the area will be confined to
mainly the northern Gulf waters Wed through Fri night as a weak
surface trough moves westward over the central Gulf. Fresh to
strong NW winds in the N Gulf will gradually diminish by this
morning, leaving tranquil conditions across the Gulf from this
afternoon through Fri night. Moderate to fresh SE winds will
prevail Sat and Sat night as high pres shifts to the NE of the
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba near 22N80W to NE
Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. Further south, scattered showers prevail south of 13N and
W of 80W. ASCAT data suggest moderate to fresh north to
northwest winds behind the front in the NW Caribbean, while
moderate to fresh trades prevail over the remainder of the basin.

The front will reach from E Cuba to the border of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica this morning, become stationary and weaken from the
Windward Passage to Providencia Island through Wed, then
dissipate by late Wed night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will
follow the front. The Bermuda High will weaken and shift E Wed
through Fri and cause trades to become gentle to moderate Wed
through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect.

A 1006 mb low near 29N78W extends a cold front south to central
Cuba near 23N80W. A warm front extends east from the low to
30N72W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and east of
the cold front between 65W-76W. To the east, a 1024 mb high is
over the central Atlantic near 31N57W. A 1010 mb surface low is
over the east Atlantic near 33N30W. A cold front extends from
the low to 22N40W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm of the low center.

The surface low will track E from the Georgia and Florida coasts
to near 31N74W this afternoon, near 28N69W Wed afternoon, and to
well SE of Bermuda by Thu afternoon. The cold front will reach
from the low to E Cuba by this afternoon, to Hispaniola by Wed
afternoon, and to E of the forecast waters by Thu afternoon.
Elsewhere, fresh NE to E winds are expected across the central
waters late Thu through Fri night.

$$

ERA
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