[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
714 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A 1007 mb low is centered near 29N78W with a cold front extending
south. Gale force winds are from 30N-31N between 76W-79W. Gale-
force wind conditions are forecast to continue until Mon night at
24/0600 UTC. Seas are to 14 ft. For more details, refer to the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

A 1008 mb low is forecast to be over the Atlantic near 31N54W on
Wed 25/1200 UTC. Gale force winds are forecast to be from 28N-30N
between 53W-58W with seas to 12 ft. For more details, refer to the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
06N14W. The ITCZ extends from 06N14W to 03N30W to the coast of NE
Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N
between 24W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1006 mb low is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N83W.
Scattered showers are over the E Gulf and Florida E of 85W. An
upper level low is centered over N Florida near 30N84W.

The surface and upper level lows will head E into the western
Atlantic Tue. High pressure ridging building into the area on Tue
will be confined to mainly the northern Gulf waters Wed through
Fri night as a weak surface trough moves westward over the central
Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds in the N Gulf will gradually
diminish by Tue morning, leaving tranquil conditions across the
Gulf from Tue afternoon through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front will extend from central Cuba near 23N80W to NE
Honduras near 16N85W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. Further south, isolated moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean from south of 15N and W of 76W. ASCAT data suggest
moderate to fresh north to northwest winds behind the front in the
NW Caribbean. Lighter southerly winds are ahead of the front. In
the central Caribbean fresh to strong winds are near N Colombia
south of 13N and between 72W-75W.

The front will reach from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica
border early Tue, become stationary and weaken from the Windward
Passage to Providencia Island through Wed, then dissipate by late
Wed night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front.
The Bermuda High will weaken and shift eastward Wed through Fri
allowing for trades throughout to be mainly in the gentle to
moderate range Wed through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low near 29N78W extends a cold front south to central
Cuba near 23N80W. A warm front extends east from the low to
29N72W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 67W-76W.
A 1024 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 32N59W. A 1013 mb low
is over the central Atlantic near 32N35W. A stationary front
extends SW to 24N40W to 22N50W to 22N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm of the low center.

A surface low will track eastward from the Georgia and Florida
coasts to near 31N74W Tue afternoon, near 28N69W Wed afternoon,
and to well SE of Bermuda by Thu afternoon. A cold front will
reach from the low to E Cuba by Tue afternoon, to Hispaniola by
Wed afternoon, and to E of the forecast waters by Thu afternoon.
SE gales associated with the low are occurring N of the Bahamas
today. Additionally, NE gales should occur just east of NE Florida
Wed. Elsewhere fresh NE to E winds are expected across the
central waters late Thu through Fri night.

$$
Formosa
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