[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231824
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A surface 1008 mb low pressure centered near 31N80W with a cold
front extending southward in the western Atlantic will enhance
strong to gale force SE winds ahead of the front, and sea heights
range from 12 to 14 feet, N of 28N W of 75W. Gale-force wind
conditions are forecast to continue for the next 48 hours. For
more details, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland for the 12 UTC analysis. The
ITCZ extends offshore from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to
03N29W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
01N-04N between 35W-45W and isolated showers elsewhere.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level low centered near 29N86W in the northern Gulf coast
is moving east to southeast today before moving across northern FL
and the western Atlantic tonight. A 1008 mb low pressure near
31N80W extends a cold front south across FL into the eastern Gulf
to Cuba near 23N82W. ASCAT data shows fresh to strong W to NW
winds in the northern Gulf and west of 83W. Light to moderate
winds prevail in the western Gulf coast. Drier air spans most of
the basin with a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 21N96W with
no significant convection in place.

A cold front from the SW Florida peninsula to W Cuba will move
east of the Gulf later today. High pressure ridging that builds in
across the area on Tue will be confined to mainly the northern
Gulf waters Wed through Fri night as a weak surface trough moves
westward over the central Gulf. Fresh to strong NW winds in the N
Gulf will gradually diminish by Tue morning, leaving tranquil
conditions across the Gulf from Tue afternoon through Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from NW Cuba across Isla de la Juventud
to Belize near 16N88W. A surface trough is also seen ahead of the
front from 15N87W to 21N81W. ASCAT data suggest moderate to fresh
north to northwest winds behind in the NW Caribbean behind the
boundary with lighter southerly winds ahead of it and in the
central Caribbean fresh to strong north of Colombia from 13N
south between 72W-75W. Scattered showers are present along the
boundary. In the SW Caribbean, Pacific monsoon trough extends from
western Colombia and across Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered
moderate convection is been enhance by this feature from 12N south
and west of 75W.

The stationary front will reach from E Cuba to near the
Nicaragua- Costa Rica border early Tue, become stationary and
weaken from the Windward Passage to Providencia Island through
Wed, and dissipate by late Wed night. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds will follow the front. The Bermuda High will weaken and
shift eastward Wed through Fri allowing for trades throughout to
be mainly in the gentle to moderate range Wed through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low pressure near 31N80W extends a cold front south
to FL near 28N80W into the eastern Gulf to Cuba near 23N82W.
A surface trough is noticeable in the northern Bahamas from
27N79W to 27N77W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noticeable extending from north central Cuba across the north
and central Bahamas to 31N between 71W-79W. Plenty of overcast
cloud cover extend from 66W-79W. Further east, a stationary front
enters the area from 30N32W to 21N57W and a dissipating front
continues to 23N74W in the central Bahamas. SCattered moderate
convection is seen north of 24N between 34W-39W, and scattered
showers elsewhere along the boundary. A 1026 mb high pressure is
centered near 32N61W with moderate to fresh winds north of the
stationary front near 22N.

The low pressure will track eastward from the Georgia coast to
near 31N74W on Tue afternoon, near 28N69W on Wed afternoon, and
well southeast of Bermuda by Thu afternoon. The low has a cold
front that will reach from the low to E Cuba by Tue afternoon, to
Hispaniola by Wed afternoon, and to east of the waters by Thu
afternoon. SE gales are associated with the low ahead of the front
in zones north of the Bahamas today. Additionally, NE gales
should occur just east of NE Florida Tue night. Elsewhere fresh NE
to E winds are expected across the central waters late Thu
through Fri night.

$$
Torres
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