[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1003 mb low is near 31N74W. An occluded front extends E to a
second low, 1003 mb, near 32N70W. A cold front extends from the
second low to the central Bahamas near 22N73W to eastern Cuba
near 21N75W. ASCAT pass indicates that gales are present north
of the first low near the Georgia and S Carolina Coast. The Gale
Warning continues into early Wed afternoon, before winds decrease
to below gale force. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1007 mb low is forecast to be over the Atlantic near 31N52W on
Wed 25/1200 UTC. Gale-force winds are forecast to be north of 28N
between 43W-55W on Wed. The low will continue eastward, bringing
gales north of 28N between 36W-48W Wed night into early Thu. Seas
will range from 10-14 ft, and as high as 12-16 ft Wed night. Please
refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to the coast of NE Brazil
near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 80 nm
along the ITCZ between 25-34W. Similar convection is seen from
02N-05N between 40W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Deep layered ridging covers the western Gulf, leading to quiet
weather and relatively weak wind speeds. A complex 1003 mb low
pressure over the western Atlantic near 31N74W is keeping fresh
to locally strong NW winds over the eastern Gulf. A surface
trough extends from 21N88W to 23N79W.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early Wed. A weak
surface trough will drift westward across the central and western
Gulf Wed through Fri, with fresh E to SE winds on the E side of
the trough. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf
Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 24/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from eastern Cuba near
19N76W to 18N77W across Jamaica to the SW Caribbean near 11N80W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen extending 180 nm east of
the front south of 23N and east of the front from eastern Cuba to
the SE Caribbean. Similar convection is in the far SW Caribbean,
south of 12N between 76W-83W. ASCAT data show fresh NW to N winds
behind the front, while fresh ESE trades prevail over the eastern
and central Caribbean.

A cold front extending from eastern Cuba to N of Panama near
12N81W will reach from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean
near 11N80W tonight, then dissipate as it drifts eastward Wed and
Wed night. Fresh to strong N winds are expected west of the front
near the coast of Nicaragua through Wed. Winds and seas will
diminish across the central Caribbean Wed and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
currently in effect.

To the east of the west Atlantic cold front described in the
section above, scattered to numerous moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is seen within 350 nm east of the
cold front, north of 22N. Similar convection extends as far E as
52W from 27N-34N, due to a warm front that extends from the low
near 32N69W to 25N61W. Additional scattered moderate convection
is from 19N-23N between 70W-74W, including over eastern Cuba and
northern coast of Hispaniola. Strong W winds cover the area from
the NW Bahamas to the coast of southern and central Florida.

To the east, a 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
26N47W. A cold front enters the area near 30N23W and extends to
21N32W. Scattered showers are seen extending along the front.

A cold front extending from 31N70W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W
will push E and reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage tonight,
then weaken as it continues E to extend from 23N65W to the
eastern tip of Hispaniola Wed evening. A complex low pressure
system will shift E across the northern waters through Wed night,
with NE gales expected E of NE Florida today, and NE of the
Bahamas on Wed. Fresh NE to E winds are expected elsewhere across
the region Thu through Fri night.

$$
MMT
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