[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 17/0300 UTC, a cold front has emerged off the Texas coast
extending from 29N91W to 24N97W near Tampico, Mexico. ASCAT data
indicates 30 to 35 kt Northerly wind over the NW portion of the
Gulf extending 130 nm offshore behind the cold front. Scattered
moderate showers and isolated strong tstorms are developing along
the front and extend 80 nm behind the front. North winds to 30 kt
with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to continue tonight
behind the front off the coast of Texas. By Tue morning, winds of
30-40 kt are expected to develop in the SW Gulf, mainly south of
27N and west of 94W. Gales are expected to persist in the waters
off Veracruz into Wed afternoon. High seas are expected across
most of the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W
to 02N259 to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
02S-04N between 07W-25W, and north of the ITCZ from 04N-07N
between 33W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Pleas see Special Features section in regards to the Gulf of
Mexico Cold front.


Cold front has moved off the Texas coast this evening enhancing
scattered moderate to isolated strong tstorms north of 26N and
west of 90W. Surface ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate SE wind across
the eastern and central Gulf with the exception of an area of
fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N-25N between
86W-90W.

A strong cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon, then move across the SE Gulf by Wed
afternoon. Northerly gale force winds and building seas will follow
in behind the front mainly W of 94W tonight in the NW Gulf, spreading
southward, and some possibly eastward, as strong gale force winds
through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and
western Gulf Thu through Fri. Strong northeast to east winds will
continue over the Straits of Florida after the frontal passage Thu
through Sat morning. Another cold front will move across the
western Gulf on Sat and Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, while upper-level
ridging covers the southern portion of the basin. Upper-level
diffluence between these upper-level features is enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 15N-20N between 75W-87W,
including the waters west of the Windward Islands to the Gulf of
Honduras. The weather is quieter over the central and eastern
basin, with isolated showers seen stretching from the northern
Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A 1006 mb low
pressure over Northern Colombia with Pacific monsoon trough
continuing westward is enhancing scattered moderate isolated
strong convection over Panama and Colombia. Strong gradient
across the Caribbean is increasing easterly trades across the
basin from the Windward Passage south to Colombia. ASCAT pass
shows fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean and
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean will continue through most of Wed as high
pressure north of the area gradually shifts eastward. Winds will
pulse to near gale on tonight near the coast of Colombia. A strong
cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then become stationary
over the northwest Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Winds and seas
will gradually diminish over the northwest Caribbean Fri and Fri
night. Mixed north swell with east wind waves will maintain seas 8
ft or greater over the Tropical N Atlantic waters for the next
several days before diminishing on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 28N60W, then stalls at that
point to 26N74W. Isolated showers are along the front. A 1027 mb
highs is centered near 32N64W and a 1025 mb high further east is
centered near 28N48W, respectively. A weakening cold front emerges
off the coast of Western Sahara near 20N16W to 19N29W to 27N44W.
No significant convection accompanies the front. A 996 mb low
pressure over the Iberian Peninsula is causing gale force winds in
the Atlantic as far south as 32N off the coast of Morocco. Strong
to near gale force NW winds extend off the coast of Morocco southward
to the Canary Islands. These winds are expected to decrease during
the next 6 to 12 hours.

A stationary front extending from near 27N65W to 26N77W will weaken
tonight, with the frontal remnants lifting north early on Wed. A
strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late
Tue night, reach from near 31N74W to Miami, Florida Wed afternoon,
then from near 28N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba on
Thu afternoon, and become stationary from near 26N65W to east-
central Cuba by Fri afternoon. Strong north to northeast winds and
building seas are expected across much of the forecast waters
following frontal passage as a tight gradient develops over the
western part of the area as central Atlantic high pressure shifts
eastward while low pressure tracks east- northeast from the Gulf
of Mexico to across Florida.

$$
Torres
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