[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171122
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 17/0900 UTC, a cold front over the NW Gulf extends from
30N80W south of Tampico, Mexico. ASCAT data indicates 30 to 35
kt Northerly wind over the NW portion of the Gulf behind the
front. Scattered moderate showers and isolated strong tstorms are
developing along the front north of 24N between 86W-91W. North
winds to 30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to
continue behind the front off the coast of Texas. By Tue morning,
winds of 30-40 kt are expected to develop in the SW Gulf, mainly
south of 27N and west of 94W. Gales are expected to persist in the
waters off Veracruz into Wed afternoon. High seas are expected
across most of the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N13W, then the ITCZ continues to 00N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02S-03N between
08W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Pleas see Special Features section in regards to the Gulf of
Mexico Cold front.

Cold front continues to move southeast across the Gulf of Mexico
enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong tstorms north of
24N and west of 85W. Surface ridging covers the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate SE wind across the
eastern and central Gulf with the exception of an area of fresh
winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N-25N between 86W-90W.

The strong cold front will move SE across the Gulf and extend
from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight,
then cross the SE Gulf on Wed. Northerly gale force winds and very
large seas will prevail behind the front, mainly W of 90W, through
Wed. Strong northerly winds behind the front will result in heavy
rainfall amounts between the Mexican Sates of Veracruz and Tabasco/
Campeche today into Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the
central and western Gulf Thu and Thu night. Strong NE to E winds
will continue over the Straits of Florida after the frontal
passage Thu through Fri night. Low pressure may develop over the
eastern Gulf Fri night and move across Florida this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, while upper-level
ridging covers the southern portion of the basin. Upper-level
diffluence between these upper-level features is enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 15N-20N between 75W-87W,
including the waters west of Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. The
weather is quieter over the central and eastern basin, with
isolated showers seen stretching from the northern Leeward Islands
to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A 1007 mb low pressure over
Northern Colombia with Pacific monsoon trough continuing westward
is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection over
Panama and Colombia. Strong gradient across the Caribbean is
increasing easterly trades across the basin from the Windward
Passage south to Colombia. ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades
in the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean will continue through Wed as high pressure north
of the area shifts eastward. Strong winds will persist near the
coast of Colombia through Sat night. A strong cold front will
cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then become stationary and weaken over
the NW Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Strong northerly winds
behind the front will result in heavy rainfall amounts over NW
Honduras to central Guatemala Wed into Thu. Winds and seas will
gradually diminish over the NW Caribbean Fri into Sat. Mixed
northerly swell and easterly wind waves will maintain seas 8 ft or
greater over the Tropical N Atlantic waters for the next several
days before diminishing on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N60W, then stalls at that
point to 26N74W. Isolated showers are along the front. A 1026 mb
highs is centered near 32N62W and a 1024 mb high further east is
centered near 28N48W, respectively. A weakening cold front emerges
off the coast of Western Sahara near 19N16W to 23N42W. No significant
convection accompanies the front. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh
across much of the basin as strong high pressure remains in
control.

A stationary front will weaken later today. A strong cold front
will move off the southeast U.S. coast late Tue night, extend from
near 31N70W to western Cuba on Wed night, and then from 27N65W
across the central Bahamas to central Cuba on Thu night. Strong N
to NE winds and building seas are expected across much of the
forecast waters following frontal passage. The front will
gradually stall over the central waters Fri and Fri night, then
lift northward Sat and Sat night as developing low pressure over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico crosses Florida.

$$
Torres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net