[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162322
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
621 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

As of 16/2100 UTC, a cold front has emerged off the Texas coast.
Northerly winds to 30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are
expected to develop this evening behind the front off the coast of
Texas. By Tuesday morning, winds of 30-40 kt are expected to
develop in the southwest Gulf, mainly south of 27N and west of
94W. Gales are expected to persist in the waters off Veracruz into
Wednesday afternoon. High seas are expected across most of the
area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to
02N25W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N-
06N between 07W-26W, and from 02N-06N between 34W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 16/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near Beaumont
Texas to the Gulf of Mexico near 28N96W to the coast of southern
Texas near 27N97.5W to the Texas/Mexico border near 26.5N99W, and
then continues westward farther inland into northern Mexico. A
line of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along
and just ahead of the front, north of 28N between 93W-95W. Behind
the front, N winds over 25 kt have already been observed. Surface
ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche Tue afternoon, then move across the SE Gulf by Wed
afternoon. Northerly gale force winds and building seas will
follow in behind the front mainly W of 94W tonight in the NW Gulf,
spreading southward and possibly eastward as strong gale force
winds through Wed. See the Special Features section above for
details on the Gale Warning. Heavy rain associated with this front
is expected over portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz,
Tabasco and Campeche late Tue through early Thu. Winds and seas
will diminish over the central and western Gulf Thu through Fri.
Strong northeast to east winds will continue over the Straits of
Florida after the frontal passage Thu through Sat morning. Another
cold front will move across the western Gulf on Sat and Sat
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, while upper-level
ridging covers the southern portion of the basin. Upper-level
diffluence between these upper-level features is enhancing
scattered moderate convection from 15N-20N between 75W-87W,
including the waters in between NE Honduras and eastern Cuba, and
the waters between Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The weather is
quieter over the eastern basin, with isolated showers seen
stretching from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico. The
ASCAT pass from late Monday morning showed strong trades in the
central Caribbean with fresh winds elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades and building seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean will continue through most of Wed as high
pressure north of the area gradually shifts eastward. Winds will
pulse to near gale tonight near the coast of Colombia. A strong
cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then become stationary
over the northwest Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Heavy rain
associated with this front is expected over portions of
northeastern Guatemala, Belize and northwestern Honduras Wed
through Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the
northwest Caribbean Fri and Fri night. On the Atlantic side of the
Lesser Antilles, mixed north swell with east wind waves will
maintain seas 8 ft or greater for the next several days before
diminishing on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N52W to 24N73W. Isolated showers are
along the front north of 25N and east of 67W. Scattered moderate
convection is well east of the front, north of 31N between 45W-
48W. Two 1026 mb highs are centered near 31N67W and 30N37W,
respectively. Another cold front emerges off the coast of Western
Sahara near 25N15W to 21N28W to 24N40W to 30N46W. No significant
convection accompanies the front. A 992 mb low pressure over the
Iberian Peninsula is causing gale force winds in the Atlantic as
far south as 32N off the coast of Morocco. Strong to near gale
force NW winds extend off the coast of Morocco southward to the
Canary Islands. These winds are expected to decrease during the
next 6 to 12 hours. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen north
of 30N and east of 13W.

The cold front extending from 26N65W to 24N73W will become
stationary by late tonight or early Tuesday morning and weaken
across the northern waters. A strong cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast late Tuesday night, reach from near
31N74W to Miami Florida Wed afternoon, then from near 28N65W to
the central Bahamas and central Cuba on Thu afternoon, and become
stationary from near 26N65W to east-central Cuba by Fri afternoon.
Strong north to northeast winds and building seas are expected
across much of the forecast waters following the frontal passage,
as a tight gradient develops over the western part of the area.

$$
Hagen
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