[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to the Bahamas near 26N78W
just to the north of Andros Island, to NW Cuba. The front becomes
stationary from NW Cuba to 20N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
surface trough is along 29N69W 26N72W, to 22N74W in the Bahamas.
Expect SW to W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 14
feet to 18 feet, within 30N68W to 30N69W to 30N70W to 31N69W to
31N68W to 30N68W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 01N40W, and curving
to the coast of Brazil along 50W, from the Equator to 01N.
Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W.
Isolated moderate from 05N southward from 15N eastward. Isolated
moderate also from 08N to 12N between 57W and 64W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the Atlantic Ocean. The front becomes stationary
from NW Cuba to 20N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds are from 24N southward from 90W
westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow, that has been supporting the
Atlantic Ocean-to-SW Gulf of Mexico cold front, has been moving
eastward and out of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level cyclonic
wind flow, with a trough, now covers the Atlantic Ocean and the
Bahamas between 60W and 80W.

The current frontal boundary will move to the south of the Gulf of
Mexico by Tuesday morning. High pressure will build into the area
behind the front, in the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The cold front will shift to the east of the area on
Thursday, ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area between the
Mona Passage and NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate from
15N northward between 60W and 80W, and from 17N southward between
80W and the coast of Central America. A front becomes stationary
from NW Cuba to 20N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and
into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A large low pressure system, that is moving eastward and away
from the U.S.A. east coast, has weakened the Bermuda High that is
to the north of the basin. E tradewinds are weaker than usual.
The high pressure will develop again by Friday, enhancing the
trade winds. Large N swell is dominating the Atlantic Ocean,
passing through the passages into the NE Caribbean Sea today.
This swell will diminish gradually during the next couple of
days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea tonight. The
front will weaken and dissipate, as it moves southeastward, and
reaches from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N68W, to the Bahamas near 26N78W
just to the north of Andros Island, to NW Cuba. The front becomes
stationary from NW Cuba to 20N94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
surface trough is along 29N69W 26N72W, to 22N74W in the Bahamas.
Expect SW to W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 14
feet to 18 feet, within 30N68W to 30N69W to 30N70W to 31N69W to
31N68W to 30N68W. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the east
of the cold front from 30N northward. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 20N northward between 60W and the cold front.

A cold front passes through 32N33W to 27N41W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 100 nm on either side of the front
from 27N to 30N. Earlier precipitation, that was occurring from
30N northward, has weakened and dissipated. Isolated moderate from
24N to 25N between 49W and 50W.

The current cold front that will reach from 27N65W to eastern
Cuba on Tuesday afternoon, and then dissipate by Wednesday
afternoon. Winds to gale force, accompanying the front in the
waters that are to the north of 28N, will diminish on Tuesday
morning. Large, long-period N swell, spreading southward across
the Atlantic Ocean, will subside on Tuesday. A second cold front
will move quickly across the N waters on Wednesday and Thursday.
A surface ridge will develop behind the cold front, from Thursday
through Saturday.

$$
MT
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