[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

As of 02/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N71W to 23N82W.
Recent ASCAT passes from 02/1412 UTC and 02/1526 UTC indicate that
gale force winds are on both sides of the cold front north of 29N
between 71W-79W. Gale force winds are also occurring in
convection along and within 30 nm ahead of the front, north of
29N. Gales will continue N of 29N in association with the cold
front through 03/0600 UTC. Through tonight, seas of 12-13 ft are
expected north of 27N between 65W- 78W. Please read the High Seas
Forecast found under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06160W to 03N33W to
the coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen within 130 nm of the ITCZ between 26W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 02/2100 UTC, the cold front has dipped south toward the
Yucatan Passage and extends westward from the Yucatan into the Bay
of Campeche, from 21N90W to 21N94W to the Mexican coast near
18N94W. Showers are seen along this front. High pressure continues
to build behind the cold front anchored by a 1027 mb high near
32N100W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations
depict strong to near gale-force westerly winds in the western Bay
of Campeche, S of 20N and W of 95W. In the northern Gulf, fresh to
strong northerly winds are noted.

The cold front will move south of the Gulf by Tuesday morning.
High pressure will build behind the front over the central Gulf of
Mexico late Tuesday and Wednesday, then shift east of the area
Thursday ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf
late Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper-level trough extends into the south-central
Caribbean Sea with upper level ridging on either side. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across Puerto Rico and the US/British
Virgin Islands. Some convection extends into the northern Leeward
Islands. Otherwise, scattered showers are seen moving across the
rest of the Lesser Antilles and portions of the Greater Antilles.
The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of
Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate trades are seen elsewhere.

A large low pressure system moving east and away from the US east
coast has weakened the Bermuda High north of the basin. As a
result, E tradewinds are weaker than usual. The high will rebuild
by Fri, enhancing the tradewinds. Large N swell is dominating the
Atlantic waters and passing through the passages into the NE
Caribbean today. This swell will gradually diminish over the next
couple of days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight,
then weaken and dissipate as it moves southeast and reaches from
eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section in regards to the gale warning
in the western Atlantic.

A solid line of strong convection is moving along the front, seen
from 30N-38N between 64W-70W. Scattered moderate convection is
also seen from 27N-29N between 70W-74W. In the central Atlantic, a
pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 23N40W to 31N35W. Two more
troughs are also analyzed in the central Atlantic, one from 30N49W
to 31N46W and the other from 22N55W to 24N52W. The rest of the
basin is dominated by surface ridging anchored by a 1021 mb high
near 28N49W.

A cold front that has moved off the Florida peninsula this
afternoon will reach from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Tuesday
afternoon, then dissipate by Wednesday afternoon. Winds to gale
force will accompany the front over waters north of 28N through
tonight. Meanwhile, large long-period N swell spreading southward
across the Atlc waters will slowly subside tonight and Tuesday. A
second cold front will quickly move across the N waters on
Wednesday and Thursday, with ridging building in behind on
Thursday through Saturday.

$$
AKR
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