[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 05N22W, 02N34W,
02N39W, and to 01N44W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong within 240 nm to the north
of the ITCZ between 20W and 44W. Isolated moderate from 05N
southward from 15N eastward, and elsewhere from 10N southward
between 44W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow, that has been supporting the Atlantic
Ocean- to-SW Gulf of Mexico cold front, has been moving eastward
and out of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level cyclonic wind flow,
with a trough, now covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Bahamas
between 60W and 80W.

High pressure will build in the western and central Gulf through
Wed in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region
yesterday. The high pressure will shift east of the area Thu ahead
of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf Fri. Looking
ahead, weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary late
Fri into Sat over the north central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area between the
Mona Passage and NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is off the SE coast of the Dominican Republic,
and about 200 nm to the ENE of Puerto Rico. Isolated moderate
is elsewhere from 15N northward between 60W and 80W. Rainshowers
are possible from 17N southward between 80W and the coast of
Central America. A cold front passes across Cuba near 22N79W,
into central Belize and across northern Guatemala. The front
becomes stationary in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 24N74W to
SE Cuba. Isolated moderate also from 14N southward between 60W
and 68W.

The current cold front, that is in the northwest Caribbean Sea,
will weaken and dissipate as it moves southeast and reaches from
eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wed. Meanwhile a large low
pressure system moving east and away from the US east coast has
weakened the Bermuda High north of the basin. As a result, E
tradewinds are weaker than usual. The high will rebuild by Fri,
enhancing the tradewinds. Large N swell dominating the Atlantic
waters and passing through the passages into the northeast
Caribbean Sea this morning will diminish gradually during the
next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is moving through the Atlantic Ocean, from a position
that is about 50 nm to the west of Bermuda, to 28N70W, to the
southernmost parts of Andros Island in the Bahamas, across Cuba
near 22N79W, into central Belize and across northern Guatemala.
The front becomes stationary in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near
24N74W to SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 23N northward between 59W and the cold front.

A cold front passes through 32N32W to 30N35W to 24N40W, and to
20N43W. Precipitation: no significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

Middle level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward between 50W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
from 21N to 23N between 55W and 56W, and from 24N to 26N between
49W and 51W.

The current Bermuda-to-Cuba cold front will shift southeast and
stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba before dissipating through mid
week. A reinforcing front or trough will move across the waters
north of 27N through mid week, followed by weak high pressure
moving off the Carolinas north of the area. Looking ahead, another
cold front will move into the region from the north, reaching as
far south as 27N by late Sat.

$$
MT
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