[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 31/1800 UTC, is near 26.1N
73.9W. This position also is about 225 nm/415 km to the ENE of the
NW Bahamas, and also about 360 nm/670 km to the east of West Palm
Beach in Florida. DORIAN is moving W, or 280 degrees, 7 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 130 knots with gusts to 160 knots.
Numerous strong rainshowers are within 60 nm of the center in the
NE semicircle, and within 45 nm of the center in the SW
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle.
The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The
FORECAST/ADVISORIES for DORIAN are available via the WMO header
WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more
information is www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 11N to 22N from the Cabo Verde Islands
eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 19N
southward, moving W 20 knots. Monsoon trough-related precipitation
is from 10N to 17N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 24N southward,
moving W 10 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are
from 20N to 22N between 54W and 57W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N to 30N between 50W and
60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W,
to 12N24W, 12N30W, and 12N43W. The ITCZ continues from 12N43W to
11N54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within
90 nm on either side of the line that runs from 11N15W to 10N26W
13N33W 14N43W 15N48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N79W in the Atlantic
Ocean, across N Florida near 29N82W, into the NE Gulf of Mexico
and the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of SW
Louisiana. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, to the north of the line
that passes through 32N76W, to the coast of Georgia near 31N.

A surface trough is along 27N85W, to a 1010 mb Yucatan Channel low
pressure center, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to 19N84W and 16N83W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

An inverted trough is in the W Gulf of Mexico, in the coastal
waters from Texas to Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters from 24N to 28N from
95W westward. Other isolated rainshowers are from 23N southward
from 90W westward.

A weak stationary front, that is in the northeast and north
central Gulf of Mexico, will dissipate this afternoon. Low
pressure in the Yucatan Channel will move westward, across the
western Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Hurricane Dorian is in
the Atlantic Ocean, near 26.0N 73.4W moving W 7 knots, with
maximum sustained wind speeds 130 kt and gusts to 160 knots.
Dorian will move through the northern Bahamas through early
Monday, before turning more northwestward and moving parallel to
the east coast of Florida toward the Georgia coast through mid
week. It is possible that tropical storm force winds may reach the
Big Bend area of Florida in the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with this forecast track.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 27N85W, to a 1010 mb Yucatan Channel low
pressure center, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, to 19N84W and 16N83W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea from 17N northward
from Jamaica westward.

A middle level to upper level inverted trough is seen in the NW
Caribbean from 24N84W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 21N85W to
16N85W. This is providing an anchor for scattered thunderstorms
across the northern portions of the basin, from 20N-22N between
80W-84W. The rest of the basin remains under fair weather. Latest
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central
Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W in Colombia, beyond
86W off the coast of Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from in the Gulf of Uraba and its coastal
plains, and from the southern side of Panama southward, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean.

Hurricane Dorian is moving WNW across the Atlantic Ocean off the
central Bahamas. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands
into the eastern Caribbean Sea late today, then reach the central
Caribbean Sea by Monday night. Moderate to fresh winds are
expected across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with
gentle to moderate winds prevailing in the NW Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front is along 31N79W in the Atlantic
Ocean, across N Florida near 29N82W, into the NE Gulf of Mexico
and the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of SW
Louisiana. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, to the north of the line
that passes through 32N76W, to the coast of Georgia near 31N.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is between the 56W tropical
wave and Hurricane Dorian. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 20N to 30N between 60W and 70W, and
from 30N to 33N between 56W and 63W.

A cold front is along 32N/33N between 40W and 50W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 30N northward
between 40W and 50W. An upper level trough extends from a 36N15W
cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation
center that is near 31N32W, to 25N43W. Rainshowers are possible,
elsewhere, from 17N northward from 50W eastward.

Major Hurricane Dorian near 26.0N 73.4W 945 mb at 11 AM EDT,
moving W 7 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 130 knots
with gusts to 160 knots. Dorian will move to 26.2N 74.7W this
evening, to 26.6N 76.2W on Sunday morning, over Abaco in the
northwest Bahamas near 26.8N 77.4W on Sunday evening. Dorian will
continue to move slowly westward, through the northwest Bahamas
as an extremely dangerous hurricane, reaching 27.0N 78.0W on
Monday morning, before moving more to the NW to 27.5N 78.5W on
Tuesday morning off the east coast of central Florida. Dorian
will change little in intensity as it continues to move NNW,
paralleling the east coast of Florida, toward the Georgia coast,
through mid week.

$$
MT
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