[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
626 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 31/09 UTC, is near 25.8N
72.6W. It is approximately 305 nm east of the Northwest Bahamas
and 470 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The maximum
sustained winds are 121 kt, making Dorian a Category 4 hurricane.
Dorian is moving WNW at 12 kt and has a minimum central pressure
of 948 mb. Moderate to strong convection is seen from 22N-27N
between 68W-73W. Outer rainbands with embedded thunderstorms are
noted from 23N-27N between 69W-74W. A slower west-northwestward to
westward motion should begin later today and continue into early
next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central Bahamas today,
be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near
the Florida east coast late Monday. Some additional strengthening
is possible tonight and Saturday. Some strengthening is possible
today. Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next
week, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been introduced to the map
along 20W from 19N southward. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted along the wave from 17N-20N between 16W-20W
and more scattered showers and tstorms from 05N-15N between 17W-
25W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W S of 19N southward,
moving W at 20 knots. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
from 12N-14N between 32W-36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 23N moving W at
10 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 17N-26N between
51W-56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 16N16W
to 12N31W to 12N43W. The ITCZ begins near 12N45W to 12N54W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 12N57W to 11N62W. Aside from
the convection near the tropical waves, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from 12N-14N
between 35W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from the Florida coast near
28N82W to the SW Louisiana coast near 29N91W. An inverted trough
is also extending into the SE Gulf from 27N83W to 25N82W.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are across the eastern
Gulf associated to the two troughs in the area. Showers and
tstorms are from 22N-29N between 82W-88W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh winds ahead of the trough on the
eastern Gulf and light to gentle winds across the basin.

The wind field from Dorian could reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico
as early as Mon night. Elsewhere, a low pressure center will be
in the SE Gulf today, south-central Gulf late tonight, then into
the western Gulf by Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inverted trough is seen in the NW Caribbean from 24N84W to a
1011 mb low pressure near 21N85W to 16N85W. This is providing an
anchor for scattered thunderstorms across the northern portions
of the basin, from 20N-22N between 80W-84W. The rest of the basin
remains under fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to
gentle trades elsewhere.

A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands into the eastern
Caribbean this afternoon, then reach the central caribbean by
Monday night. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the
eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is draped along the western Atlantic, entering
the waters near 31N77W and stretches westward to an area south of
Jacksonville, Florida near 29N80W. Thunderstorms continue to
ignite along the boundary. Scattered showers are seen north of
Cuba to the northern Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. An
inverted upper trough over the central Atlantic is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 24N-27N between 60W-64W.
A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic 30N37W to
27N37W, with no significant convection associated with it.

Dorian will move to 26.1N 74.0W this afternoon, 26.5N 75.8W Sun
morning, 26.7N 77.2W Sun afternoon, 26.9N 78.1W Mon morning, and
27.5N 79.4W Tue morning. Dorian will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 29.5N 80.5W early Wed, and continue northward to
near 32.0N 80.5W Thu. Dorian will move slowly across the northern
Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Mon night, then move N along the Florida E coast Tue and
Wed. Ridge remains in place across the central and eastern portion
of the basin.

$$
Torres
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