[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
206 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 31/03 UTC, is near 25.5N
71.4W. It is approximately 375 nm east of the Northwest Bahamas
and 545 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The maximum
sustained winds are 121 kt, making Dorian a Category 4 hurricane.
Dorian is moving WNW at 10 kt and has a minimum central pressure
of 948 mb. Moderate to strong convection is seen from 24N-27N
between 68W-73W. Outer rainbands with embedded thunderstorms are
noted from 23N-28N between 67W-74W. Dorian will begin a slower
west-northwestward to westward motion tonight and continue into
early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian should move
over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and central
Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the northwestern
Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.
Some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Saturday.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W S of 19N southward,
moving W at 20 knots. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
from 10N-15N between 31W-35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W S of 21N moving W at
10 knots. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 17N-21N between
50W-56W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 18N16W
to 12N34W to 12N46W. The ITCZ begins near 12N47W to 12N55W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 12N57W to 11N62W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are seen along the monsoon trough from
11N-15N between 20W-26W, from 11N-14N between 35W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends westward from the Florida coast near
28N82W to the SW Louisiana coast near 29N91W. An inverted trough
is also extending into the SE Gulf from 23N83W to 25N81W.
Numerous strong thunderstorms are moving south of the front off
the Florida coast seen from the Florida Keys to 24N between 82W-
87W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds
ahead of the trough on the eastern Gulf and light to gentle winds
across the basin.

The wind field from Dorian could reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico
as early as Mon night. Elsewhere, a low pressure center will
enter the SE Gulf tonight, south- central Gulf Saturday night,
then into the western Gulf by Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inverted trough is seen in the NW Caribbean from 24N83W to
15N84W with a 1010 mb low near 21N83W along the trough. This is
providing an anchor for scattered thunderstorms to ignite across
the northern portions of the basin, from 20N-22N between 80W-86W
and from 18N-20N between 76W-78W. The rest of the basin remains
under fair weather. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
elsewhere.

Hurricane Dorian is moving WNW across the Atlantic Ocean N of
Hispaniola. A tropical wave will cross the Windward Islands into
the eastern Caribbean on Saturday, then reach the central
caribbean by Monday. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across
the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing over the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is draped along the western Atlantic, entering
the waters near 31N77W and stretches westward to an area south of
Jacksonville, Florida near 29N81W. Thunderstorms continue to
ignite along the boundary. Scattered showers are seen north of
Cuba to the northern Bahamas from 22N-28N between 76W-80W. An
inverted upper trough over the central Atlantic is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms from 21N-31N between 51W-63W.
A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic 30N37W to
27N37W, with no significant convection associated with it.

Dorian will move to 25.9N 72.8W Sat morning, 26.3N 74.5W Sat
evening, 26.6N 76.0W Sun morning, 26.8N 77.3W Sun evening, and
27.0N 78.6W Mon evening. Dorian will change little in intensity as
it moves to 28.3N 80.5W late Tue, then continues to 30.8N 81.2W
Wed. Dorian will move slowly across the northern Bahamas toward
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Mon
night, then move N along the Florida E coast Tue and Wed.

$$
MMTorres
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