[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 31/2100 UTC, is near 26.2N
74.4W, which is about 150 nm east of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas
and about 300 nm east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 130 knots, making it a Category 4
hurricane. Dorian is moving west at 7 kt with minimum pressure of
945 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 25N-
28N between 70W- 76W. Dorian is expected to continue a slower
westward motion for the next day or two, followed by a gradual
turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W S of 20N, moving W at
15-20 kt. Showers are noted within 70nm of the wave axis from
09N- 18N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W S of 17N, moving W at
20 kt. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm
of the wave axis from 05N-16N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W S of 23N, moving W at
15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen in the northern portion of
the axis from 21N-24N between 57W-61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
17N17W to 12N29W to 11N45W. The ITCZ begins near 10N52W and
continues to 15N58W. Showers are within 90 nm on either side of
the monsoon trough from 21W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed where the stationary front had been,
stretching from the west coast of Florida near 29N83W to the SW
Louisiana coast near 30N92W. An inverted trough extends from the
Yucatan Passage into the central Gulf from 22N86W to 27N87W. A
1010 mb low is analyzed along the trough near 23N87W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is across the eastern half
of the Gulf due to these surface features, from 22N-30N and east
of 91W. Isolated thunderstorms are moving across the Bay of
Campeche due to convective activity occurring over land, mostly S
of 22N between 92W-95W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
winds in the eastern and central Gulf with light to gentle winds
elsewhere.

The low pressure in the Yucatan Channel will move west across the
western Gulf through mid-week. In the Atlantic, Hurricane Dorian
will move through the northern Bahamas through early Mon before
turning more northwest and moving parallel to the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia coast through mid week. With this forecast
track, tropical storm force winds will be possible in the Big Bend
area of Florida in the far NE Gulf Tuesday and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An inverted trough extends from the Yucatan Passage into the NW
Caribbean from 17N83W to 22N86W. Scattered thunderstorms are seen
from 17N-22N between 78W-85W. Subsidence from an upper level ridge
across the eastern half of the Caribbean is limiting convection at
this time. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades north of Colombia, with light to gentle trades across the
rest of the basin.

Hurricane Dorian is moving WNW across the Atlantic Ocean over
open waters just N of the central Bahamas. A tropical wave will
cross the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean this
evening, then reach the central Caribbean by Monday night.
Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and
central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over
the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from the Florida coast into the western Atlantic
from 30N81W to 31N79W with some showers near the feature. Broad
upper level cyclonic flow is over the central Atlantic. This is
igniting scattered thunderstorms from 23N-31N between 53W-67W. A
1021 mb high is analyzed near 30N52W with surface ridging covering
the rest of the Atlantic.

Major Hurricane Dorian will continue to move slowly west through
the northwest Bahamas as an extremely dangerous hurricane reaching
27.2N 78.5W Monday afternoon, before turning NW to 28.3N 79.1W
Tuesday afternoon off the east coast of central Florida. Dorian
will begin slowly weakening as it continues to move NNW
paralleling the east coast of Florida toward the Georgia coast
through mid week.

$$
AKR
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