[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
559 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian centered near 20.5N 66.6W at 29/0900 UTC or 130
nm NNW of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 15N-22N between 63W-68W. The northwest motion
is expected to continue through the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and
Friday. Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane
during the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

The now Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin is centered near 36.1N 71.6W
at 29/0900 UTC or 200 nm ENE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.

Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted on the south
side between 90 and 240 nm from the center. The cyclone is
expected to turn north-northeastward with an increase in forward
speed on Thu. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical on
Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along the west coast of Africa
and far east Atlantic from 21N18W to 03N19W, moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-17N and east
of 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 47W extends from
21N southward, is moving W around 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air
prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting
convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 16N17W to
14N48W to 12N50W. The ITCZ extends from 12N50W to 09N61W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered showers and tstorms are from 05N-10N between 20W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016
mb high centered near 27N92W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds over the Gulf waters. Diffluent flow aloft is
enhancing scattered showers across the east Gulf mainly east of
84W.

High pressure will continue across the basin through the weekend,
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. There is
potential for Hurricane Dorian to enter the NE Gulf early next
week. Refer to the section above for details on Dorian.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Dorian north of the basin is producing shower activity
across the northeast Caribbean. Dorian will continue moving away
from the Caribbean today. Refer to the section above for more
details on this system.

Upper level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
over the adjacent waters south of Cuba and Cayman Islands. In the
southwest Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing
scattered moderate to strong convection south of 11N between 78W-
84W. Fair weather prevails elsewhere.

Expect moderate to fresh trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Erin, and the
tropical waves in the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 30N79W to
27N80W. Another trough is analyzed from 28N72W to 25N75W.
Scattered showers are noted within these features mainly west of
75W. To the east, an upper-level low near 27N56W is inducing
scattered showers from 25N-31N between 51W-60W. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1022 mb high centered near 35N39W.

Hurricane Dorian will move to 21.9N 67.6W this afternoon, 23.7N 69.0W Fri
morning, 25.1N 70.6W Fri afternoon, 26.0N 72.5W Sat morning, and
27.0N 76.4W Sun morning. Dorian will change little in intensity
as it moves to 27.5N 79.5W early Mon, then weaken inland over
Florida on Tue. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a
major hurricane during the next few days over Atlantic waters.

$$

ERA
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