[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291748
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 21.4N 67.2W at 29/1500 UTC or
190 nm NNW of San Juan Puerto Rico and is moving NW at 10 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is from 18N-24N between 64W-70W. The NW motion
will continue through Friday. By Friday night, a west-
northwestward motion is forecast to begin and continue into the
weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday. Strengthening is
forecast during the next few days with Dorian expecting to become
a major hurricane on Friday and remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through the weekend. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the west coast of Africa and far east
Atlantic near 20N S of 21N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05N- 19N and
east of 23W.

A central Atlantic tropical is along 48W S of 22N, moving W
around 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's
environment at this time, inhibiting convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Senegal near 14N17W to
11N32W to 11N51W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to the coast of
Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
from 04N-11N between 23W-38W. Showers are also seen from 09N-11N
between 44W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A front is slowly moving south over the northern Gulf, with a
cold front extending from 30N83W to 29N86W, and a stationary
front beginning at 29N86W and continues to 29N90W. The stationary
front extends farther west right along the northwest Gulf coast.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen across the NW Gulf
from 26N-29N between 87W-95W. Diffluent flow aloft continues to
influence scattered showers across the east Gulf mainly east of
84W. Weak ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1015 mb
high centered near 26N93W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds over the basin waters.

Hurricane Dorian is predicted to be reach the Florida peninsula
by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, high pressure
will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Monday,
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The outer bands of Dorian continue to bring numerous moderate to
strong convection across and south of Puerto Rico and the USVI and
from 17N-18N between 65W-67W. Dorian will continue moving farther
away from the Caribbean today. Refer to the section above for
more details on this system.

Upper level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
over the adjacent waters south of Cuba and Cayman Islands from
18N-22N between 76W-86W. In the southwest Caribbean, the East
Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to strong
convection south of 12N between 77W- 84W. Fair weather prevails
elsewhere. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle winds
elsewhere.

Winds and seas should remain quiescent during the next several
days across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian and the
tropical waves in the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 24N79W to
30N78W. Another trough is analyzed from 25N76W to 29N73W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within these
features mainly west of 76W. To the east, an upper-level low in
the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 21N- 31N between 48W- 59W. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 35N38W.

Hurricane Dorian will move to 22.9N 68.1W this evening, 24.5N
69.6W Friday morning, 25.6N 71.4W Friday evening, 26.3N 73.4W
Saturday morning, and 27.0N 76.9W Sunday morning, very close to
or over the NW Bahamas. By Monday morning, Dorian is forecast to
be near or over the Florida peninsula. By Tuesday morning, the
hurricane is predicted to be over the Florida peninsula and
weakening. Dorian is anticipated to become a major hurricane as
early as Friday and remain that way until landfall.

$$
AKR
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