[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290518
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian centered near 19.7N 66.0W at 29/0300 UTC or 80
nm N of San Juan Puerto Rico moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is from 15N-22N between 63W-68W. The northwest motion
is expected to continue through the next few days. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east
of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Thursday and Friday.
Dorian is forecast to strengthen into a powerful hurricane during
the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Erin centered near 35.6N 72.1W at 29/0300
UTC or 170 nm E of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NNE at 18
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to
numerous moderate convection is noted on the south side between
90 and 240 nm from the center. The cyclone is expected to turn
north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed on Thu. The
cyclone is expected to become extratropical on Thursday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along the west coast of Africa
and far east Atlantic from 21N17W to 03N19W, moving west at 10-15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N-16N and east
of 20W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 46W extends from
21N southward, is moving W around 5-10 kt. Saharan dry air
prevails in the wave's environment at this time, inhibiting
convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of the Senegal/Guinea-
Bissau border near 12N17W to 10N50W. The ITCZ extends from 10N50W
to 10N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered showers and tstorms are from 05N-10N
between 20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1016
mb high centered near 28N92W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds over the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will continue across the basin through the weekend,
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. There is
potential for Hurricane Dorian to enter the NE Gulf early next
week. Refer to the section above for details on Dorian.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Hurricane Dorian is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
across the northeast Caribbean. Dorian will continue moving away
from the Caribbean tonight. See the section above for details.

Scattered moderate convection is noted over the adjacent waters
south of Cuba, Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. In the southwest
Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
moderate convection south of 11N between 78W-84W. Fair weather
prevails elsewhere.

Expect moderate to fresh trade winds across the south-central
Caribbean during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian, T.D.
Erin, and the tropical waves in the Atlantic.

A surface trough extends south of T.D. Erin from 29N72W to
25N75W. Scattered showers and tstorms prevail across the west
Atlantic west of 72W. An upper-level low near 27N56W is inducing
scattered showers from 25N-31N between 51W-60W. The remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by
a 1025 mb high centered near 35N39W.

Hurricane Dorian will move to 21.0N 67.0W Thu morning, 22.9N 68.3W Thu
evening, 24.5N 69.9W Fri morning, 25.7N 71.7W Fri evening, and
26.4N 73.8W Sat evening. Dorian will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 27.0N 75.8W late Sun, and continue to near 27.8N
79.4W Mon. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful
hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

$$

ERA
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