[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 10.7N 49.1W at 24/2100 UTC
or 630 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N-12N between 49W-41W. Gradual strengthening is forecast during
the next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength
when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. See
latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. See latest NHC marine
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

A surface trough extends from 30N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to an
inland Florida 1011 mb low near 26N81W S of Lake Okeechobee. The
trough continues from the low center to 24N81W in the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is near the low center.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the N
Bahamas and the W Atlantic from 25N-30N between 76W-79W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical or subtropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system
moves northeastward over the Atlantic offshore of the southeastern
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and
central Florida peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeastern
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
The chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 28 hours
is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 07N-21N, moving
W at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

afternoon. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W from 07N-19N, moving W
at 10-15 knots. Isolated moderate moderate convection is over the
Leeward Islands from 15N-18N between 62W-67W. Scattered moderate
convection is inland over N Venezuela from 06N-11N between 62W-
66W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 06N-19N, moving W
at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is over Cuba and
Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia, from 04N-12N
between 72W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W to the central sections of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 16N24W to 10N40W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over W Africa from 05N-18N between
08W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid level low is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 25N-30N between 90W-99W.
Elsewhere, Isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf and
the Straits of Florida from 22N-25N between 80W-86W.

Surface high pressure will prevail over the Gulf of Mexico
through Thu night. This will produce moderate to fresh south to
southeast over the waters west of 90W and mainly light to gentle
winds east of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above. Besides
the convection already mentioned, widely scattered moderate
convection is inland over N Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and
Guatemala.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
gradually increase in areal coverage through Mon. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras at
night Mon through Wed. Tropical Storm Dorian is near 10.7N 49.1W
1008 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35
kt gusts 45 kt. Dorian will move to 11.0N 50.7W Sun morning, 11.4N
52.8W Sun afternoon, 11.9N 54.9W Mon morning, 12.7N 57.0W Mon
afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 14.6N 61.1W Tue
afternoon. Dorian will change little in intensity as it moves to
16.5N 65.3W Wed afternoon, and near 18.4N 69.0W Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two Special features are over the Atlantic basin. See above. A
tropical wave is over the E Atlantic. See above.

A 1022 mb high is centered over the central atlantic near 34N51W.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the W Atlantic near 32N62W. Upper level diffluence SE of the
center is producing scattered moderate convection from 26N-32N
between 70W-75W.

A weak area of low pressure over S Florida will track offshore
the east-central coast of Florida Sun. This system will continue
to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
with strong gusty winds and rough seas, over the waters west of
72W the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected
to become conducive for tropical cyclone development of this
system once it moves back over the Atlantic waters. Otherwise,
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the
area. Tropical Storm Dorian will approach the southern waters,
possibly as a hurricane, the middle of next week.

$$
Formosa
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