[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression FIVE developed, at 24/1500 UTC, near 10.4N
47.9W. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The
depression is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 10 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180
nm of the center of the depression in the NW quadrant. Public
Advisories about Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/
Advisories about Tropical Depression Five are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

A surface trough extends from 30N79W in the Atlantic Ocean, to an
inland Florida 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N80W
just to the NE of Lake Okeechobee. The trough continues from the
low center to 24N84W in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to
strong rainshowers are within 250 nm to 420 nm of the center in
the NE quadrant, and within 120 nm to 200 nm of the center in the
E semicircle. Other isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area
that extends from Cuba and 20N northward from 70W westward.
Significant development of the low pressure center is unlikely
today, while the low pressure center drifts northward across the
southern or central Florida peninsula. The environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, once
the low pressure center moves off the east-central coast of
Florida and into the western Atlantic Ocean by Sunday. It is
likely that a tropical or subtropical depression may form early
next week, while the system is moving northeastward, offshore of
the southeastern United States coast.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, S of 22N,
moving W 10 knots. Rainshowers are possible from 11N to 26N
between Africa and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W, S of 20N, moving
W 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm
to the east of the wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the
wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, S of 19N, moving
W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level inverted trough extends from the
coastal areas of Honduras, toward northern Colombia and Venezuela.
Warming cloud top temperatures and dissipating/weakening
precipitation are from 17N northward between the Windward Passage
and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 18N16W, across the central sections of the Cabo
Verde Islands, to 12N36W, toward T.D. FIVE. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of
the line that extends from 09N13W 09N25W 10N31W 08N40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The GFS model for 700 mb shows a cyclonic circulation center and
trough in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough
extends from the central coastal plains of Louisiana, along the
Texas Gulf coast, into the Deep South of Texas. Scattered to
numerous strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters, in the NW
corner of the area, from 26N northward to the coast from 92W to
the coast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 27N to 30N between 90W and 91W, and into the coastal sections
of SE Louisiana.

A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W.

The current weak 1017 mb high pressure center, that is near
28N87W, will be replaced by a high pressure center that will move
northward from Cuba to the SE Gulf of Mexico by the middle part of
the next week. The related surface pressure gradient will
maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds in the waters west of
90W, and mainly light to gentle winds will continue east of 90W
during the period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model for 250 mb shows an upper level inverted trough,
roughly along a W-to-E line, from coastal Honduras, into the
central Caribbean Sea, toward Colombia and Venezuela. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and
81W in Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within
120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 77W and 82W, and
within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough in clusters
between 76W and 82W.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will
increase gradually in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night,
from Monday through Wednesday. Newly formed Tropical Depression
Five near 10.4N 47.9W 1010 mb at 11 AM EDT is moving W 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 35 kt. The depression will
move near 10.7N 49.4W this evening, strengthen to a tropical storm
near 11.0N 51.4W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 35 kt
gusts 45 kt, reach near 11.4N 53.5W Sun evening, and continue to
intensify gradually, as it reaches near 12.0N 55.5W Mon morning
with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt, near 13.6N
59.3W Tue morning. It is forecast to intensify to a minimal
hurricane, as it moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea near 15.2N
63.1W early Wed, with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts to 80
kt.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N28W. A
second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N40W.
A third upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N47W.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent near the
cyclonic centers, as they are surrounded by comparatively drier
air in subsidence.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N63W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 330 nm
to the east of the cyclonic center in the E semicircle. A surface
trough is along 29N58W 26N61W 23N61W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm to the east of
the trough.

A surface trough, that curves away from a 1018 mb low pressure
center that is near 35N41W, passes through 32N38W to 30N41W.
Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward between 35W and 50W.

A weak area of low pressure that is in S Florida will track
north-northeastward across the Florida peninsula today and
tonight, and be offshore the east-central coast of Florida on
Sunday. This system will continue to bring scattered to numerous
rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and
rough seas, to the waters west of 72W during the next few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
tropical cyclone development of this system, once it moves into
the Atlantic Ocean waters again. Gentle to moderate SE winds will
continue elsewhere across the area, under a relatively weak
pressure pattern.

$$
MT
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