[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250527
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 10.9N 50.4W at 25/0300 UTC,
approximately 552 nm ESE of Barbados, and is moving W at 12 kt.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb with maximum
sustained wind speed at 35 kt and gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is north and west of the center, from 10N- 13N
between 50W- 52W. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it
approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday. See latest NHC
public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details. See latest NHC marine forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details or
visit www.hurricanes.gov.

A 1012 mb surface low continues to be centered over South Florida
near 26N81W, with a surface trough extending from the low from
24N83W to 31N79W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in
the western Atlantic from 26N-31N between 69W-80W.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development during the
next few days. A tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the system moves northeastward over the
Atlantic, offshore of the southeastern United States coast.
Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina should
continue to monitor the progress of this system. The chance for
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours is high. See
latest NHC public forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details or visit www.hurricanes.gov.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W S of 22N, moving W
at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W S of 19N,
moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm
of the wave moving across the Leeward Islands.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W S of 19N,
moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is over Cuba
and Jamaica. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are
seen along the northern portion of the wave, and in the SW
Caribbean from 10N-12N between 81W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania/Senegal near 16N16W to the central sections of the
Cabo Verde Islands near 16N24W to 14N32W to 10N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from
06N-09N between 15N-35W. Scattered moderate convection is also
moving off the west African coast from 07N-14N and E of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid level low over the NW Gulf of Mexico is bringing continuous
rounds of scattered moderate convection. This activity is noted
from 25N-30N between 91W-94W. Scattered thunderstorms are also
seen just off the west coast of Florida from 26N-30N and E of 85W.
Otherwise, surface ridging is seen across the basin. Latest
scatterometer data depicts light anticyclonic winds in the eastern
and central Gulf, with light to moderate southeasterly winds in
the western Gulf.

High pressure will prevail over the forecast waters through
Thursday night. This will produce moderate to fresh south to
southeast over the waters west of 90W and mainly light to gentle
winds east of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is flaring up across the Windward
Passage, mostly from 19N-20N between 73W-75W. Numerous strong
convection, enhanced by the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, is
moving off the coast of Colombia into the SW Caribbean S of 10N
between 76W-77W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades
are seen across the central Caribbean, with light to moderate
trades in the eastern and western basin. Light winds are in the NW
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
gradually increase in areal coverage through Monday. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday. See the Special
Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Dorian.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level low continues to produce scattered thunderstorms
across the central Atlantic from 24N-31N between 54W-66W. Another
mid-level low over the central Atlantic is producing a small area
of thunderstorms from 25N-28N between 46W-47W. Surface ridging is
seen across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near
33N51W. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle south-
southeasterly winds in the W Atlantic.

A weak area of low pressure over S Florida will track offshore
the east-central coast of Florida on Sunday. This system will
continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
some with strong gusty winds and rough seas, over the waters west
of 72W the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
expected to become conducive for tropical cyclone development of
this system once it moves back over the Atlantic waters.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will continue
across the area. Tropical Storm Dorian will approach the southern
waters, possibly as a hurricane, the middle of next week.

$$
AKR
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