[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 17W S of
19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Abundant moisture is noted in the
latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along the
vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 07N-17N between 13W-23W. Areas from
Liberia northward into southern Mauritania are also experiencing
numerous moderate to strong convection.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 39W S of 16N,
moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave
accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered
moderate showers are seen east of the wave from 09N-13N between
31W-40W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 62W S of 22N,
moving W around 15-20 kt. Showers are seen within 100 nm of the
wave moving across the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is located
along 94W S of 22N and stretches into the eastern Pacific. This
wave is moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-23N
between 93W-96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 17N16W to 13N25W
to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 09N52W to 10N59W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the tropic waves section, showers
are seen within 75 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in the central and
western Gulf in the vicinity of the tropical wave, from 23N-30N
between 85W-96W. Additionally, the Yucatan trough is enhancing  a
strong line of thunderstorms currently moving into the western
Bay of Campeche, from 19N-22N between 88W-91W. Latest
scatterometer depicts light to gentle easterly winds with
moderate winds north of the Yucatan.

A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will move W of the Gulf
by Friday, with fresh to strong SE winds expected tonight and
Thursday following wave passage. Elsewhere, a surface high
pressure ridge will persist over the NE Gulf through this weekend,
maintaining generally tranquil marine conditions across the
region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level troughing is currently over the Caribbean
basin, and is leading to numerous moderate to strong convection
across the Greater Antilles. Most of the convection is occurring
over land; however, some storms are moving into adjacent waters
off Cuba, Haiti, Puerto Rico and across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. This activity is observed from 18N-22N between 67W-84W.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing some convection in
the SW basin, mostly off of Colombia and Panama, S of 11N between
75W-83W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades in the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades in
the western basin. Light to gentle trades are seen in the eastern
Caribbean.

Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and Thursday night. Fresh to strong trades will persist over the
south- central Caribbean through this weekend. A tropical wave
will move E from the Lesser Antilles across the eastern Caribbean
to the central Caribbean Friday, then cross the western Caribbean
Saturday and Sunday. Another tropical wave will approach the
Lesser Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an
upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over
the SE and central Bahamas. A surface trough is seen along the
Bahamas from 23N77W to 29N73W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is seen across the Bahamas and moving off of Cuba from
21N-26N between 71W-80W. Another surface trough is seen near
26N68W to 30N65W, reflected from an upper level low near 32N69W,
with showers and isolated thunderstorms within 80 nm of the trough
from 26N- 32N. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced
by a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 31N51W.

A surface trough over the central Bahamas will generate moderate
to fresh SE winds and produce showers and thunderstorms over the
waters W of 75W. Expect this during the next several days as it
slowly moves NW along the E coast of Florida. A surface high
pressure ridge residing across the far northern waters will
generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the open
waters E of the Bahamas through the end of this week. Fresh to
locally strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and
the Turks and Caicos Islands.

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net