[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the West coast of Africa is along 15W S of
18N, moving W at around 15 kt. Wave model guidance depicts the
formation of this wave in the area. Abundant moisture is noted
in the latest TPW with a broad area of convection associated along
the vicinity of the wave. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen from 06N-10N between 12W-21W including inland
areas of Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Senegal.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 35W S of 18N,
moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show the wave
accompanied by a large area of high moisture content. Scattered
moderate showers are seen from 03N-12N between 31-38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N58W to 11N61W
is moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are seen within 150 nm
east of the tropical wave from 12N-21N.

A tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico is located along 92W from
23N southward across the Bay of Campeche into the Eastern Pacific
05N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
Bay of Campeche from 18N-24N between 89W-95W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 08N35W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to
07N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical
wave, scattered showers are seen along the monsoon trough 180 nm
north and 200 nm to the south.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the north
and central Gulf of Mexico. In the Bay of Campeche, tropical
wave is present from 23N92W. Aside from the convection near
the tropical wave, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
present across the eastern Gulf coast from 21N-27N between
81W-88W.

A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will cross the SW Gulf
today and tonight, with fresh to strong SE winds expected tonight
into early Thu following wave passage. Elsewhere, a surface high
pressure will persist over the NE Gulf through the weekend,
maintaining generally tranquil marine conditions across the
region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture in the NW Caribbean along with upper level
diffluence associated to an upper trough is enhancing broad
area of disturbed showers and isolated tstorms from 18N-22N
between 78W-86W in the Yucatan Channel. Recent GOES 16 SAL imagery
indicates the presence of Saharan dust in the central Caribbean
Sea. In the SW, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
seen from NW coast of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica mainly
associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. Further east, scattered
showers are associated with the tropical wave moving across the
Lesser Antilles. ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades in the
central Caribbean and light winds across the eastern Caribbean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NW
Caribbean through this evening in the wake of a tropical wave over
the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf
of Honduras tonight and Thu night. Fresh to strong trades will
persist over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. A
tropical wave will pass over the Lesser Antilles later today, move
across the eastern Caribbean tonight through Thu night, then
cross the western Caribbean Fri through Sat. Another tropical
wave will approach the Lesser Antilles this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Enhanced upper-level divergence in between an upper trough and an
upper ridge as well as abundant low-mid level moisture are over
the SE and central Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is to the east of the Bahamas from 22N-26N between
71W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere
from 24N-31N between 61W-70W associated to a surface trough near
30N64W to 25N66W. The remainder of the Atlantic is being influenced
by a high pressure ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near 31N49W
and a 1022 mb high centered near 32N32W.

A middle-level low over the SW forecast waters will continue to
support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas
through Sat. Surface high pressure will prevail elsewhere along
with gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Otherwise, fresh to locally
strong trades are expected at night between Hispaniola and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. In the far E Atlantic, strong to near
gale force N to NE winds will persist today offshore of Morocco
and Western Sahara as well as near the Canary Islands.

$$
MMTorres
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