[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19/20W S of 18N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection is seen from 10N-16N between 15W-22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N44W to
11N42W to 06N36W, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to
show a moisture maximum associated with the wave. Scattered
showers are along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 63W from
08N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated to scattered light to
moderate showers cover the NE Caribbean north of 15N between the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave in the SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is
located along 94W S of 23N and stretches into the eastern Pacific.
This wave is moving W around 10 kt. The tropical wave is
interacting with an upper level low and is producing scattered
moderate convection from 17N-25N between 88.5W-94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 17N16W to 13N25W
to 10N33W to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 09N61W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-12N between
34W-37.5W. This area of convection is associated with a weak low
to mid level low pressure embedded within the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low and a tropical wave are over the SW Gulf and
Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 25N
between 88.5W-94W. Elsewhere S of 27N between 88W-95W, scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are noted. Scattered showers and
tstorms are also seen near the W coast of the Florida Peninsula
and just N of the western tip of Cuba. The latest ASCAT pass shows
gentle winds across much of the Gulf. However, fresh SE winds are
in the eastern Bay of Campeche east of the tropical wave.

The tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche will move W of the Gulf
by Fri, as the upper level trough moves N over the western Gulf.
Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm coverage over the western
Gulf today and tonight. Expect enhanced showers and tstorms over
the N Gulf on Friday as the upper trough moves N. Fresh to strong
SE winds are expected today in the SW Gulf following the wave
passage. Elsewhere, a surface high pressure ridge will persist
over the NE Gulf through this weekend, maintaining generally
tranquil marine conditions across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate showers and tstorms seen from eastern Cuba to
Hispaniola are due to upper-level diffluence. The strongest
convection is seen over southwestern Haiti and adjacent waters. A
surface trough over the Bahamas is also enhancing the moisture in
this region. Another surface trough extending over the E Gulf of
Mexico southward to western Cuba is producing scattered showers
and isolated tstorms over the NW Caribbean north of 17.5N.
Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms are over the far SW
Caribbean in association with the East Pacific monsoon trough.
Relatively dry low to mid level air covers the eastern Caribbean
and portions of the central Caribbean. However, a tropical wave in
the E Caribbean is spreading isolated to scattered light showers
over the NE Caribbean. Latest ASCAT shows moderate trades covering
much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds in the south-central
basin off Colombia and NW Venezuela.

Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras through
early this morning and again tonight. Fresh to strong trades will
persist over the south-central Caribbean through this weekend. A
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean near 63W will cross the
eastern Caribbean to the central Caribbean by Fri, then cross the
western Caribbean Sat and Sun. Another tropical wave will approach
the Lesser Antilles Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extending from the surface to the mid-levels is currently
over the Bahamas. A separate mid to upper level low is near
31N69W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen
over the much of the Bahamas, the Old Bahama Channel, Haiti, and
the area within 90 nm either side of a line from 25N72W to 32N65W.
A 1025 mb high centered near 32N49W is leading to surface ridging
across much of the remainder of the basin.

The surface trough that extends from 23N79W to 28N77W will
generate moderate to fresh SE winds and produce showers and
tstorms over the waters W of 75W during the next several days as
it slowly moves northward along the E coast of Florida. The system
has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 5
days. A surface high pressure ridge residing across the far
northern waters will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE
winds over the open waters E of the Bahamas through the end of
this week. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected at night
between Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

$$
Hagen
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