[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are
currently occurring offshore of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir. The gales in Agadir are expected to continue through
the day. Please visit http://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for the latest forecast from
Meteo France.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 26W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic
turning. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic along 44W from 22N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depict the wave well
at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air which is
limiting convection north of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is
from 06N-10N between 39W-55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which
is limiting convection near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 22N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Costa
Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W
to 07N34W. The ITCZ extends from 07N34W to 08N42W, then resumes
west of the tropical wave near 07N46W to 07N58W. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 10N-16N between
16W-22W and along the monsoon trough from 03N-10N between 29W-40W.
Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ is noted from 05N-08N
between 47W- 54W and near the coast of Venezuela.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Mid to upper level ridging covers the Gulf of Mexico. A weak low
at the surface is also present, with a 1013 mb low pressure near
29N83W. A plume of enhance moisture is seen in the TPW imagery
running along the base of a large mid to upper level trough. This
is affecting the eastern and northern portion of the eastern Gulf
Gulf from 24N-25N between 82W-90W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extends 80 nm southeast of the Louisiana coast.
Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf. ASCAT indicates light to
gentle winds across the Gulf.

Winds will pulse to fresh W-NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening. Winds will also pulse to fresh offshore of Choctawhatchee
Bay Thu afternoon and Fri afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure
will remain across the central and eastern Gulf allowing for mainly
tranquil winds and seas through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers the eastern and central Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection is S of E Cuba along the Windward Passage. In
the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate strong convection is seen
in the western coast of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. This is
associated to the proximity of the monsoon trough in the region.

A tropical wave along 83W will move across the NW Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras today. A second tropical wave along 68W will move
across the central Caribbean through Tue, and the western
Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach the
eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves along
with high pressure north of the area will continue to support
generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest
basin. Due to the influence of perturbation in the trades, a
potential for heavy rains is in the forecast with the highest
risk for western Panama and Costa Rica. Accumulations could
range between 1-3 inches from mid week to Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is N of 23N between 65W-
78W. A 1021 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 3032W
producing fair weather. A gale is along the coast of Morocco. A
surface trough from a leftover front is near 30N30W to 26N44W.

A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic W-SW
across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the
end of the week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N.

$$


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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