[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are
currently occurring offshore of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir. The gales in Agadir are expected to continue through
Monday. Please visit http://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for the latest forecast from
Meteo France.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 26W from 03N-12N,
moving W at 10 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic
turning. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the east Atlantic along 43W from 03N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at
700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air which is limiting
convection north of 10N. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-
10N between 39W-55W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which
is limiting convection near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W from 05N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Costa
Rica, Panama, and the SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N16W
to 08N26W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to 08N42W. The
ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave at 08N45W and continues to the
coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the showers associated
with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along
the coast of W Africa from 10N-15N between 15W-22W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 28W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak 5-10 kt surface ridging prevails from the W Atlantic to the
central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are over the NE Gulf
and N Florida from 28N-30N between 82W-84W. Scattered moderate
convection is also over the W Bay of Campeche S of 20N between
94W-97W. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered
over Mississippi near 32N90W, producing easterly upper level
winds winds over the Gulf. Strong subsidence is over the W Gulf.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for quiescent winds and seas through the end of the
week. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers the eastern and central Caribbean.
Scattered moderate convection is S of E Cuba, the Gulf of
Honduras, and N Colombia. Of note in the upper levels, a small
upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N87W.

A tropical wave along 82W will move across the W Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras today. A second tropical wave along 68W will
move across the central Caribbean through Tue, and the western
Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach the
eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves along
with high pressure north of the area will continue to support
generally fresh to strong winds in the central and southwest
basin. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next
several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A front is over the W Atlantic, E of South Carolina. Prefrontal
scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 65W-78W. A 1022
mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N48W producing fair
weather. A gale is along the coast of Morocco.

A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic west-
southwest across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
through the end of the week. This pattern will maintain gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of
22N. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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