[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122258
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force N winds are
currently occurring offshore of Morocco in the marine zone
Agadir. The gales in Agadir are expected to end by 13/0000 UTC.
Please see the latest forecast from Meteo France at
http://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic along 31W S of 12N, moving W
around 15 kt. This is a low amplitude wave with cyclonic turning.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 22N47W to 14N47W to
02N45W and is moving W around 15 kt. Wave model diagnostics
depict the wave well at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry
Saharan air which is limiting convection north of 10N. Isolated
moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 44W-53W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W S of 20N, moving W
around 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry Saharan air, which is
limiting convection over water near the wave axis. Scattered
tstorms are near the wave axis over W Venezuela, Hispaniola and
near the W coast of Puerto Rico.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W S of 23N, moving W
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Costa Rica,
Panama, and the SW Caribbean south of 11N and west of 81W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are over the NW Caribbean from
18N-23N between 76W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 08N26W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N47W to
09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
monsoon trough between 34W-38W, and within 90 nm N of the ITCZ
between 55W-60W. Also of note, a surface trough is analyzed along
39/40W from 06N-12N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front over the SE U.S. in combination with a large
area of broad upward motion over the western Atlantic and SE U.S.
continues to generate a large area of enhanced moisture over the
NE Gulf of Mexico, as seen on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen over Florida and extending
offshore of the Florida peninsula and panhandle about 60 nm into
the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and tstorms are from 23N-25N
between 84W-87W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the
Yucatan Channel. Some tstorms are also inland over the central
Yucatan Peninsula. A 1017 mb surface high is near 24N90W. Little
to no significant precipitation is seen west of 90W except for
isolated showers from 27N-29N between 88W-92W. The ASCAT pass from
late Monday morning shows gentle winds across the basin.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for mainly tranquil winds and slight seas through
the end of the week. Winds will pulse to fresh to the W-NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula each evening. Winds will also pulse to fresh
each afternoon offshore of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend
region Thu through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently over the Caribbean.

The potential for heavy rain exists over portions of Panama, Costa
Rica and Nicaragua Wednesday through Friday due to favorable upper
atmospheric conditions. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches per day
are likely over portions of the area. Isolated flash flooding is
possible.

Currently, dry Saharan air covers much of the Caribbean north of
11N, with the exception of the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and
tstorms are over the Greater Antilles caused by afternoon heating
over land. Scattered moderate convection is in the SW Caribbean
south of 11N west of 78W due to the East Pacific monsoon trough.
The ASCAT pass from late Monday morning shows strong trades from
11N-15N between 72W-77W.

The tropical wave along 85W will move across the NW Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras through early tonight. A second tropical wave
along 70W will move across the central Caribbean through Tue and
the W Caribbean into mid week. A third tropical wave will reach
the eastern Caribbean by mid week. The passage of these waves
along with high pressure north of the area will continue to
support generally fresh to strong winds in the central and
southwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretching from 24N63W to the SE U.S. combined
with large scale upward motion over the region continues to
generate a large area of enhanced moisture over the western
Atlantic and Florida, as seen on TPW imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 26N-29N between 69W-74W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are elsewhere within 150 nm of a line from 31N67W to
25N78W to 30N83W, including Florida and the NW Bahamas. High
pressure ridging covers the remainder of the area east of 60W.

A surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic W-SW
across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through the
end of the week. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate
winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N.

$$
Hagen
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