[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081756
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the west African coast is along 19W S of 18N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave
axis. Wave model diagnostic depicts the wave well and the TPW
imagery support abundant moisture coming off of Africa with this
wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W S of 11N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
within 150 nm of the wave from 04N-08N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W S of 19N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in
addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. The wave is also well detected at the surface.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along the
Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, from 12N-19N between
58W-66W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W S of 20N, moving W
at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N-
21N between 78W-88W near the Gulf of Honduras.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 05N42W. The ITCZ continues at that point to 05N46W,
then resumes west of the tropical wave near 05N49W to 06N56W.
Besides the convection associated with tropical waves, scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of both
the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 24W-44W and from 49W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level ridging is filling in behind the upper level
trough moving into the western Atlantic. This, along with surface
ridging, is providing quiet weather this morning with the exception
of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms near the coast of the
Panhandle of Florida to Louisiana from 85W-92W and North of 27N.
A surface high analyzed at 1017 mb is located near 25N84W. The
Yucatan trough is analyzed from 22N92W to 18N94W. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are seen in the central and western basin
with light winds in the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are
near the Yucatan trough.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing
for gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas through Mon.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical
wave currently moving through the basin.

An upper level low is situated in the Windward Passage and is
continuing to enhance strong convection as it moves eastward
toward Cuba and Jamaica. This convection is seen from 18N-22N
near the tropical wave along 82W. Scattered showers are seen
moving across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean
with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will reach Central
America today. An active tropical wave moving across the Lesser
Antilles will cross the Caribbean through Sun, accompanied by
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong easterly
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Sat night and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As an upper level trough moves across the western Atlantic, it is
supporting a surface trough near 31N75W to 28N78W. A line of
thunderstorms across the area from 27N-31N between 70W-78W.
In the central Atlantic, an upper low along with a surface
trough, analyzed from 28N62W to 20N658, continues to support
scattered moderate convection from 21N-29N between 59W-65W. A
cold front is pressing southward across the central Atlantic,
entering the waters near 31N27W and stretches westward to 27N48W.
Showers are seen along this boundary with thunderstorms seen
within 60 nm of the front. Surface ridging is seen across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N55W. Moderate
easterly winds are seen in the latest scatterometer data over
Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos.

A ridge along 28N will persist through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N through Sun. An area of
showers and thunderstorms NE of Puerto Rico will move northward
along the western periphery of the ridge over the next few days.
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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