[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081051
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the west African coast is along 18W S of
18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of
the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W S of 11N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
within 100 nm of the wave from 02N-08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 63W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance
in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen along the central islands of the Lesser Antilles and the
eastern Caribbean, from 12N- 20N between 59W- 64W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 06N-21N,
moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture near and to
the west of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 09N-19N between 79W-88W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N16W to 08N23W to 06N40W. The ITCZ begins near 06N40W to
05N75W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N48W to
07N55W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100
nm of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 22W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level ridging is filling in behind the upper level
trough moving into the western Atlantic. This, along with surface
ridging, is providing quiet weather this morning. A surface high
analyzed at 1017 mb is located near 25N89W. The Yucatan trough is
analyzed from 18N93W to 23N92W which is supporting some showers
and an isolated thunderstorm in the southern Bay of Campeche.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are seen in the central and
western basin with light winds in the eastern Gulf. Moderate to
fresh winds are near the Yucatan trough.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing
for gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas through
Monday. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical
wave currently moving through the basin.

An upper level low is situated in the Windward Passage and is
continuing to enhance strong convection as it moves eastward
toward Cuba and Jamaica. This convection is seen from 18N-20N
between 73W-78W. Scattered showers are seen moving across the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Isolated thunderstorms are seen
off the coasts of Colombia and Panama in association with the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to
gentle trades elsewhere.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean will reach Central
America today. An active tropical wave moving across the Lesser
Antilles will cross the Caribbean through Sunday, accompanied by
widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Strong easterly
winds are expected near the coast of Colombia Saturday night and
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As an upper level trough moves across the western Atlantic, it is
supporting a line of thunderstorms across the area from 29N- 31N
between 74W-78W. Thunderstorms are occurring near the Bimini
Islands of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also seen from 27N-31N between 68W- 74W. In the
central Atlantic, an upper low along with a surface trough,
analyzed from 19N68W to 24N65W, continues to support scattered
moderate convection from 21N- 28N between 60W-67W. A cold front is
pressing southward across the central Atlantic, entering the
waters near 31N30W and stretches westward to 28N48W. Showers are
seen along this boundary with thunderstorms seen within 60 nm of
the front between 41W- 46W. Surface ridging is seen across the
rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N55W. Moderate
easterly winds are seen in the latest scatterometer data over
Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos.

A ridge along 28N will persist through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N through Sunday. An area
of showers and thunderstorms NE of Puerto Rico will move northward
along the western periphery of the ridge over the next few days.
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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