[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082331
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
731 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the African coast extends its axis along 22W
and S of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Wave model diagnostic depicts
the wave well and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in
the wave's environment. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 49W and S of
11N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within
90 nm of the wave axis mainly S of 06N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W S of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance
in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the
wave's environment. This wave has a surface signature. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the Lesser
Antilles and the eastern Caribbean, from 15N-20N between 60W-63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W and S
of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture
in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted along the
wave axis, but the presence of this feature is also enhancing
scattered moderate convection across central America mainly W
of 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 19N16W
to 08N26W to 06N43W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
06N47W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N51W to
07N57W. Besides the convection associated with tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are seen within 75 nm of both
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 20W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level diffluence prevails over the Florida peninsula and
northeast Gulf waters supporting scattered moderate convection
mainly N of 28N and E of 90W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near
25N85W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevailing across the basin, with strongest
speeds noted over the Bay of Campeche.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas to continue through Mon. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse
each night NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently moving through the basin.

An upper-level low is centered over the Windward Passage
enhancing scattered moderate convection across Cuba and
Hispaniola. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the
basin, outside of the areas near the tropical waves. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the central Caribbean
with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

The tropical wave in the western Caribbean will move into the
Yucatan Peninsula late tonight. The tropical wave across the
Leeward Island and E Caribbean will cross the Caribbean through
Sun, accompanied by widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Strong easterly winds are expected to return to the south central
Caribbean and coast of Colombia Sat night and Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently moving through the basin.

As an upper level trough moves across the western Atlantic, it is
supporting a surface trough near 30N76W to 28N78W. To the east,
another surface trough extends from 29N63W to 21N70W. Scattered
showers prevail along the troughs. A cold front is pushing
southward across the central Atlantic, entering the waters near
31N27W to 27N38W to 27N48W. Showers are seen along this boundary.
Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin anchored by
a 1022 mb high near 28N53W. Moderate easterly winds are noted in
the latest scatterometer data over Hispaniola and the Turks and
Caicos.

The surface ridge will persist through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N through Sun. An area of
active showers and thunderstorms N through NE of Puerto Rico will
move northward along the western periphery of the ridge over the
next few days. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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