[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave over west Africa is along 17W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 02N-14N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is not well-defined and is not
producing any significant convection at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 03N-17N moving
W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance. TPW
imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-15N
between 55W-60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W
from 06N-20N moving W at 15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture near and to the west of the tropical wave. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over Central America
from Honduras to Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal near
13N17W to 08N20W to 07N30W to 07N39W. The ITCZ begins near 07N39W
to 08N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 08N47W to
10N56W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, no additional convection is noted.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp upper level trough extends from N Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula enhancing convection over the E Gulf of Mexico. Weak
surface ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central
Gulf allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and
relatively low seas throughout the period. Moderate to fresh
winds will continue to pulse each evening through the early
morning hours near and to the northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula
in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical
wave currently affecting the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level low is centered over E Cuba near 20N75W producing
scattered moderate convection over E Cuba, Jamaica, and
Hispaniola. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is inland over W Cuba, the N Yucatan Peninsula, and N
Colombia. 20 kt of easterly surface winds are noted over the
central Caribbean.

The W Caribbean tropical wave will move west of the area by Thu
night. An active tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles
tonight and Thu and move across the eastern Caribbean through Fri
night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface convergence and upper level divergence is over the W
Atlantic from 26N-31W between 70W-80W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over this area. A surface trough is N of the Virgin
Islands from 23N63W to 18N64W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the trough. A 1023 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 27N51W. A cold front dips into the central Atlantic
area from 31N38W to 30N42W to 31N46W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the front.

Over the W Atlantic, the pressure gradient between a ridge and
tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to locally fresh trade winds mainly across the
waters S of 22N through Sun. An area of showers and thunderstorms
located NE of Puerto Rico is associated with a surface trough, and
will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge over
the next few days. Winds and seas could be higher near
thunderstorms.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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