[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave near the west African coast is along 17W S of 19N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the
wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W S of 14N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
within 100 nm of the wave from 02N-08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W S of 18N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance in
addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen along the central islands of the Lesser Antilles, from 10N-
18N between 58W- 63W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture near and
to the west of the tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection
is observed from 13N-20N between 79W-83W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
14N17W to 07N22W to 06N37W. The ITCZ begins near 06N37W to
07N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N48W to the
coast of French Guiana near 06N54W. Besides the convection
associated with tropical waves, scattered showers are seen within
100 nm of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 21W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level trough is sliding eastward over Florida and the
eastern Gulf. Most of the significant convection from earlier has
now dissipated with some isolated showers seen in the central and
east-central Gulf. Surface ridging extends across the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across most of
the basin, with moderate southeasterly winds in the western Gulf.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds, in response to the Yucatan
trough, are also seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf, allowing
for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas
throughout the period. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to
pulse each evening through the early morning hours near and to the
northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on the tropical
wave currently moving through the basin.

An upper level low is also situated in the Windward Passage and
is enhancing strong convection seen near the Haitian coast, from
18N-19N between 73W-76W. Some diurnally driven convection over SE
Cuba is also reaching adjacent waters. Scattered showers are seen
moving across the Virgin Islands and off the coast of Puerto
Rico. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the
central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

A tropical wave currently along 80W will reach the western
Caribbean late tonight and move west of the area by Thursday
night. An active tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles
tonight and Thursday, then move across the eastern Caribbean
through Friday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated thunderstorms continue across the western Atlantic in
response to the upper level trough approaching the area, from 24N-
30N between 76W-80W. An upper low along with a surface trough,
analyzed from 18N65W to 23N63W, continues to support convection in
the central Atlantic from 19N-25N between 61W-66W. A cold front
dips in the central Atlantic from 31N30W to 30N45W. Scattered
showers are seen along the boundary, with thunderstorms seen from
39W-48W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin
anchored by a 1024 mb high near 27N53W. Moderate easterly winds
are seen in the latest scatterometer data over Hispaniola and the
Turks and Caicos. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are off the
coast of Mauritania.

A ridge extending westward along roughly 28N will persist through
the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical
waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to locally fresh trade winds mainly across the waters S
of 22N through Sunday. An area of showers and thunderstorms
located NE of Puerto Rico is associated with a surface trough, and
will move northward along the western periphery of the ridge over
the next few days. Winds and seas could be higher near
thunderstorms.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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