[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071715
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to the analysis over the west
coast of Africa along 15W from 04N-20N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-10N between 14W-23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W S of 14N moving W
at 15-20 kt. This wave is not well-defined and is not producing
any significant convection at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55/56W S of 17N moving
W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance, and
TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm W and 120 nm E
of the wave axis from 08N-16N. Scattered showers and tstorms have
already begun affecting the Windward Islands. This active tropical
wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight and Thu and move
across the eastern Caribbean through Fri. Expect enhanced rainfall
and tstorms to continue to accompany this tropical wave.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 75/76W from
06N-20N moving W around 15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture near and to the west of the tropical wave, which is
leading to scattered showers and tstorms from Panama to Jamaica
between the wave axis and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is found within the southern part of
this area from 8.5N-13.5N between 76W-84W due to enhancement by
the East Pacific monsoon trough. This tropical wave will move
across the western Caribbean through Thursday night and will
continue to bring enhanced showers and tstorms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal near
13N17W to 09N21W to 07N26W to 07N38W. The ITCZ begins near 07N38W
to 07N42W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 08N45W to
11N52W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
waves mentioned in the section above, no other significant
convection is currently noted near the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from central Florida to the south-
central Gulf to the southwest Gulf. A 1017 mb surface high is near
25N84W. A surface trough is located over the central Bay of
Campeche. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the central Bay
of Campeche near the surface trough south of 22.5N from 92W-95W.
Isolated showers and tstorms are elsewhere south of 25N west of
88W. Scattered showers and tstorms are over the N Gulf north of
27N and east of 94W. Similar activity is from 26N-27N between
Florida and 86W. Scattered convection is also seen in Florida
Bay and over South Florida.

Gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over much of the basin, although
moderate winds are seen in the western Gulf south of 26N. Weak
high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing for
generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas
throughout the period. Moderate to fresh winds will continue to
pulse each evening through the early morning hours near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See Tropical Waves section above for information on the two
tropical waves that are currently affecting the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough axis extends from an upper level low over
the Atlantic near 25N64W to an upper level low near the eastern
tip of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are over
Hispaniola. In the eastern Caribbean, isolated showers and
tstorms are just on the Atlantic side of the northernmost Leeward
Islands due to a surface trough that extends from 23N62W to
18N63W. Latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades covering the Central
Caribbean from 12N-18N between 70W-77W, with moderate trades
between 65W-80W south of 18.5N. Gentle winds are elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper level trough extends over the eastern U.S. from
Ohio to Central Florida. Deep layered SW winds along the U.S. east
coast and offshore over the western Atlantic are advecting
excessive moisture over the region. As a result, scattered to
numerous moderate convection is seen from 27N-32N between 74W-
79W. Upper level diffluence and upper level divergence are
enhancing convection in this area. Scattered showers and tstorms
are seen elsewhere to the northwest of a line from 31N69W to
23N78W, in between the line and Florida.

An upper level low is near 25N64W. A surface trough extends from
23N62W to 18N63W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
21N-26N between 59W-65W. This convection is likely producing
locally gusty winds. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
elsewhere from 18N-27N between 57W-67W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are occurring from Hispaniola to the Turks and
Caicos Islands between 67W-74W due to an upper trough axis that
extends from the upper low near 25N64W to an upper low near the
eastern tip of Cuba.

A 1024 mb surface high near 26N48W is leading to quiescent weather
from 18N-29N east of 53W across the eastern and central Atlantic.
However, a cold front enters the discussion are near 32N39W and
extends to 31N42W. The cold front is analyzed to have dissipated
that had previously extended from 31N42W to 31N51W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 60 nm of the cold
front and its remnants, from 29N-32N between 36W-54W.

A ridge extending westward from the Bermuda-Azores high will
persist across the forecast waters through the period. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving
westward across the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to locally
fresh trade winds mainly across the waters S of 22N through Sun.
The area of showers and tstorms located NE of Puerto Rico
associated with the surface trough and upper level low mentioned
above will move northward along the western periphery of the
aforementioned ridge over the next few days. This convection could
produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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