[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071043
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W S of 13N moving W
at 10 kt. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100
nm of the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W S of 14N moving W
at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW
imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the northern portion
of the wave axis from 09N-15N between 51W-57W.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 75W from 06N-
20N moving W at 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen within 60
nm of this wave from 15N-17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to
07N24W to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins near 07N41W to 11N53W. Besides
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is near the monsoon trough coming off the W
Africa from 06N- 11N and E of 25W. Scattered showers are also seen
within 60 nm of the ITCZ.


GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to the Bay of
Campeche. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring in the central and
eastern Gulf from 26N-30N between 83W-91W. There is also numerous
strong convection seen in the southern Bay of Campeche, near the
Yucatan trough analyzed from 19N92W to 23N88W. This area of strong
thunderstorms observed from 18N-21N between 92W-96W is slowly
moving east-northeast. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
winds across the basin.

Tranquil marine conditions of gentle to moderate winds and seas
generally less than 4 ft will prevail across the basin through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves moving
across the basin.

An upper level trough axis extends across the northern and central
Caribbean. This is contributing to isolated convection seen across
the west-central Caribbean from 15N-17N between 77W-80W. The
Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing strong convection
across the SW Caribbean, from 09N-13N between 75W-83W. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are also moving across the
southern Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in
the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh trades in the Gulf of
Honduras. Light to gentle trades are seen elsewhere in the basin.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is expected to weaken as
it moves in the western Caribbean by late Thursday. A tropical
wave will reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and move across
the eastern Caribbean through Friday night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves moving
across the basin.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms observed from 25N-
31N between 70W-78W are moving east-northeast across the western
Atlantic. There is also an area of scattered moderate convection
north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from 19N- 21N between 66W-70W.
A surface trough is moving across portions of the Leeward Islands
and is analyzed from 16N62W to 23N60W. This trough, in combination
with an inverted upper level trough with an axis along 62W/63W,
is producing scattered moderate convection from 21N-27N between
57W-65W. Surface ridging covers the rest of the basin, anchored by
a 1021 mb high near 29N60W and a 1023 mb high near 27N47W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in
the western Atlantic, mostly N of 29N and W of 68W. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds are also seen north of Hispaniola in addition
to moderate to fresh northerly winds near the Cabo Verde Islands.

A ridge will continue across the northern part of the forecast
area through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are
expected south of the ridge through Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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