[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W S of 15N moving W
at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W/54W S of 14N moving
W at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW
imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is seen along the northern portion
of the wave axis from 10N-14N between 51W-56W.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 74W from 07N-
21N moving W at 15-20 kt. Strong winds and a sharp wind shift are
noted with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is inland over N Colombia in addition to the
Windward Passage near the northern portion of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
08N24W to 07N35W. The ITCZ begins near 07N40W to 09N52W, then
continues W of a tropical wave near 09N54W to the coast of
Suriname near 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is
along the coast of W Africa from 06N-11N and E of 20W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to the Bay of
Campeche. Convection that had been occurring earlier this evening
has now dissipated with the exception of an isolated thunderstorm
off the Florida Panhandle SW of Tallahassee. There is scattered
moderate convection across southern Mexico reaching the extreme
southern waters of the Bay. Weak surface ridging extends across
the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across
the basin.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing
for generally gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas
throughout the period. No tropical cyclone activity is expected
for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on tropical waves moving
across the basin.

An upper level trough axis extends across the northern and central
Caribbean. This is contributing to isolated convection seen across
the Greater Antilles and across the northern Caribbean. The
Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection across the
SW Caribbean, mostly observed S of 15N between 75W-83W. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are also moving across Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh trades in the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh
trades in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are seen
elsewhere in the basin.

A strong tropical wave currently located near 74W is expected to
move through the western Caribbean by late Thursday. A weaker
tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and
move across the eastern Caribbean through Friday night. Neither
wave is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated convection covers is seen over the western Atlantic from
24N-31N between 72W-80W. A surface trough is just E of the
Leeward Islands from 15N61W to 21N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen along this trough from 17N-21N between 56W-61W.
An inverted upper low is also igniting scattered moderate
convection across the central Atlantic from 20N-26N between 59W-
65W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin anchored
by a 1022 mb high near 29N61W and a 1024 mb high near 27N44W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in
the western Atlantic, mostly N of 29N and W of 68W. There are also
moderate to fresh northerly winds near the Cabo Verde Islands.

A ridge extending westward from the Bermuda-Azores high will
continue across the forecast area through the period. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and a strong tropical waves over the
central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly winds
north of Hispaniola tonight before weakening on Wednesday.
Elsewhere winds and seas are quiescent. No tropical cyclone
development is expected for the next several days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net