[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W S of 16N moving W
at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W/53W S of 15N moving
W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance, and
TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis
from 03N-14N.

A strong tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean from 20N70W to
15N71W to 08N71W moving W at 15-20 kt. Strong winds and a sharp
wind shift are noted with this tropical wave. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is inland over NW Venezuela and N
Colombia. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W S of 19N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
07N30W to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins near 08N39W and continues to
08N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-12N between 12W-15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp upper level trough extends from Tampa Florida to Tampico
Mexico enhancing convection over most of the the Gulf of Mexico
except the SW Gulf. Weak surface ridging extends across the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across
the basin.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central
Gulf the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate
winds and relatively low seas throughout. No tropical cyclone
activity is expected for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A sharp upper level trough axis extends from E Cuba to NE
Nicaragua enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is inland over Cuba, Jamaica, and Central
America from Honduras to Panama.

Gusty winds, building seas, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms accompany a strong tropical wave that is currently
located near 70W/71W. This tropical wave is expected to move
through the western Caribbean by late Thu. A weaker tropical wave
will approach the Lesser Antilles on Thu and move across the
eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Neither wave is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluence is over the W Atlantic S of 30N and W of
72W. Widely scattered moderate convection covers this area to
include the central and N Bahamas. A surface trough is just E of
the Leeward Islands from 21N58W to 15N58W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the trough axis. A
large 1024 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N43W.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge extending westward from the Bermuda-
Azores high will continue across the forecast area through the
period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a strong
tropical waves over the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh
to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola tonight before
weakening on Wed. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiescent. No
tropical cyclone development is expected for the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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