[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 36W S of 16N is
moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are within
120 nm ahead and 240 nm behind the wave axis from 05N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W S of 15N moving W
at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance, and TPW
imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate showers are noted within 150 nm either side of
the wave axis from 03N-14N. See Atlantic Ocean section below for
information on a surface trough along 57W from 13N-21N.

A strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean extends from
20N68W to 17N69W to 07N70W and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Strong
winds and a sharp wind shift at the surface are noted with this
tropical wave. Numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the
wave axis from 14N-18N. Additional scattered showers and tstorms
trail the wave axis over the eastern Caribbean.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82/83W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are
seen within 120 nm on either side of the axis S of 16N, with
isolated showers N of 16N. Stronger convection is south of 10.5N
associated with the East Pacific monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
10N21W to 07N34W. The ITCZ begins near 07N38W and continues to
11N45W to 08N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section above, scattered to numerous moderate with embedded
isolated strong convection is seen from 05N-11N between the coast
of Africa and 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough axis extends from the southeast coast of the
U.S. to northern Florida to the Gulf of Mexico near 25N89W to
22N98W. This is aiding in maintaining scattered showers and
isolated tstorms across the central and northeastern Gulf north
of 23N, mainly east of 93W. Additional scattered showers are seen
within 120 nm of the Texas and Louisiana coasts west of 93W.
Scattered tstorms are seen in the south-central Bay of Campeche
along the diurnal trough, south of 19.5N between 94W-95W. Surface
ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate winds across the basin.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north-central Gulf the
next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and
relatively low seas throughout. Moderate to fresh winds will
continue to pulse each evening through the early morning hours
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Upper-level ridging covers the eastern and central Caribbean. An
upper-level low near the central Bahamas is inducing isolated
showers and tstorms across the Windward Passage, Haiti and the
eastern tip of Cuba. In the eastern Caribbean, scattered showers
and tstorms are occurring as far east as 62W due to moisture in
the wake of the tropical wave that is now along 70W. In the far SW
Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered
moderate convection south of 10.5N between 76.5W-83W. Elsewhere S
of 13N west of 76W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
seen. Fresh to strong winds are in the central Caribbean, with
much weaker winds in the far SE and NW Caribbean.

Gusty winds, building seas, and scattered showers and tstorms
accompany a strong tropical wave that is currently located near
70W. This tropical wave is expected to move across the central
Caribbean through Wed, and into the western Caribbean Wed night
into Thu. Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles
on Thu and move across the eastern Caribbean through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough axis extends from the southeast coast of the
U.S. to northern Florida to the Gulf of Mexico near 25N89W. The
upper trough is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection across the western Atlantic from 24N-32N between 73W-
79W to include the NW Bahamas. An upper level low near the central
Bahamas is inducing isolated showers and tstorms across the SE
Bahamas and Windward Passage. Another upper level low is spinning
near 23N61W. A nearby surface trough is analyzed along 56W from
13N-21N. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 19N-23N
between 53W-57W, with more isolated showers and tstorms elsewhere
from 15N-24N between 52W-61W. Another area of isolated tstorms is
seen in the central Atlantic from 27N-30N between 56W-59W due to
upper-level divergence in the area. The remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high
near 28N62W and a 1025 mb high near 28N36W. Scatterometer data
shows fresh winds north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

A surface ridge will continue across the western Atlantic forecast
area through the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge
and tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola through
tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds and building seas associated
with a passing trough will affect the waters N of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola Thu and Fri.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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