[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061039
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1019 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 34W S of 16N is
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment within 100 nm on either side of the axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along is along 50W S
of 14N is moving W at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted in model
guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from
09N-14N between 48W-52W. The interaction of the northern portion
of the wave with an upper- level low near 23N60W is reflected as
a surface trough that extends from 12N56W to 21N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along this trough from 13N- 22N
between 54W- 58W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 66W from 06N-
18N is moving W at 10 kt. This feature is also well depicted in
model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within this
wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 65W-
72W.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 81W from
08N-20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are seen
within 90 nm on either side of the axis N of 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to
10N23W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near 05N51W and continues to the
coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section above, scattered showers are noted
along the monsoon trough between 24W- 38W. A line of thunderstorms
is beginning to move off the coast of Guinea and Sierra Leone,
from 06N-10N and E of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough continues to extend across the central Gulf
into the Bay of Campeche. This is aiding in maintaining isolated
convection across the Gulf, seen from 23N- 30N between 86W-93W.
The diurnal trough across the Bay of Campeche is analyzed from
20N92W to 22N90W. Surface ridging extends across the basin.
Scatterometer data depicts light and gentle winds across the Gulf
with some moderate southwesterly winds in the eastern basin.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north-central Gulf the
next few days, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and low seas
to continue across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The scattered moderate convection that was impacting the Windward
Passage has dissipated. However, the strong convection continues
off the coasts of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia enhanced by the
Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. This convective activity is seen
S of 11N between 76W-84W. There are also isolated thunderstorms W
of the Windward Islands. Isolated showers are quickly moving
across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Scatterometer data
depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia in addition to
Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Light to gentle
trades are seen elsewhere across the basin.

Gusty winds, building seas and scattered showers will accompany a
strong tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. The
wave is expected to reach the central Caribbean Wednesday then
move into the western Caribbean by Friday. Another tropical wave
will approach the Leeward Islands on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

As the upper level trough stretching across the Gulf slides
eastward, it is enhancing scattered moderate convection across
the western Atlantic from 27N-31N between 67W- 80W. The upper
level low centered near 23N60W is igniting isolated thunderstorms
from 22N-25N between 58W-62W. Another area of isolated
thunderstorms is seen in the central Atlantic from 27N-29N between
56W-59W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N60W and a 1023 mb
high near 28N35W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
winds north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are off the coast of Mauritania and along the Cabo
Verde Islands.

A ridge will continue across the area through Saturday. The
gradient between this ridge and a tropical wave moving westward
across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly
winds north of Hispaniola tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds and
building seas associated with a passing trough will affect the
waters N of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Friday and Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net