[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 30W from 03N-
15N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
wave's environment within 90 nm on either side of the axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along is along 47W
from 02N-13N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted
in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the
wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm on
either side of the wave axis. The interaction of the northern
portion of the wave with an upper-level low near 23N58W is
reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 17N53W to
13N24W with scattered showers.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 64W from 04N-
18N, is moving W at 15-20 kt. This feature is also well depicted
in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within
this wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-16N between
61W-67W.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 78W from
08N-20N, is moving W at 10 kt. The only shower activity near this
feature at this time is related to the monsoon trough, that
extends along 08N.

A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 87W from
04N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted in model
guidance as well. At this time, scattered moderate convection is
within 150 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from Gambia near 13N17W to 11N41W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above,
scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between
20W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from SE Georgia near
81N81W to the Florida Panhandle near 31N88W. Scattered moderate
convection is south of the front affecting the Florida peninsula
and eastern Gulf waters mainly east of 89W. Surface ridging is
building across the basin, which is anchored over the west-central
Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across
the basin.

Weak pressure ridging will remain across the north-central Gulf
the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds
and relatively low seas to continue. A trough will form over the
Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move westward across the
Bay of Campeche at night through the period accompanied by
moderate to fresh north to northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See the section above
for details.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin, with highest speeds prevailing across the central portion,
just north of Colombia.

Gusty winds, building seas, and numerous squalls and
thunderstorms accompany the tropical wave that is presently
moving across the eastern Caribbean. The wave is expected to
continue moving across the central Caribbean through mid week,
and into the western Caribbean by the end of the week. Another
tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands on Thu afternoon
and move across the eastern Caribbean during Thu and through Sat
night enhancing winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the west Atlantic
north of 25N and west of 70W. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high near
28N60W and a 1024 mb high near 28N34W.

The surface ridge will continue across the forecast area through
the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical
waves moving westward across the Caribbean will support fresh to
strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola early through Tue night.
Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and building seas associated
with a surface trough will impact the waters between the
southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic by Fri night
through Sat night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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