[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0519 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W S of 15N is
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave's
environment within 100 nm on either side of the axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along is along 49W S of
13N is moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model
guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from
07N-14N between 45W-51W. The interaction of the northern portion
of the wave with an upper- level low near 22N60W is reflected as
a surface trough that extends from 12N55W to 20N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along this trough from 13N-21N between
53W- 56W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W from 04N-
19N is moving W at 10 kt. This feature is also well depicted in
model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within this
wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-17N between 62W-
69W.

A west-central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 80W from
08N-20N, is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen along the northern portion of the wave from 17N-21N between
79W-81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N24W
to 10N40W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section above, scattered showers are noted along the monsoon
trough between 22W- 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough continues to extend across the central Gulf
into the Bay of Campeche. This is aiding in maintaining convection
across the Gulf, seen from 24N- 28N between 84W-94W. Surface
ridging extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light
and gentle winds across the Gulf.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north-central Gulf the
next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds and
relatively low seas throughout. A trough will form over the
Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move westward across the
Bay of Campeche at night through the period accompanied by
moderate to fresh north to northeast winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is seen moving off the Cuban and
Haitian coast, N of 19N between 74W-79W. Furthermore, the Eastern
Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection across the SW
Caribbean. Numerous strong convection is seen off the coasts of
Colombia and Panama, S of 10N between 76W-78W. Scattered moderate
convection is also seen off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, S
of 11N between 80W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades north of Colombia in addition to Puerto Rico and the
northern Leeward Islands. Light to gentle trades are seen
elsewhere across the basin.

Gusty winds, building seas, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms accompany a strong tropical wave that is presently
moving across the eastern Caribbean. The tropical wave is expected
to move across the central Caribbean through mid week, and into
the western Caribbean by the end of the week. Another tropical
wave will approach the Leeward Islands on Thursday afternoon and
move across the eastern Caribbean during Thursday and through
Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the western
Atlantic, between S Florida and the northern Bahamas, from 24N-27N
between 77W-80W. The upper level low centered near 22N60W is
igniting isolated thunderstorms from 22N-25N between 57W-62W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high near 28N60W and a 1025 mb high near
28N39W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh winds north of
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
off the coast of Mauritania and along the Cabo Verde Islands.

A high pressure ridge will continue across the forecast area
through the period. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
tropical waves moving westward across the Caribbean Sea will
support fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola early
through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and
building seas associated with a surface trough will impact the
waters north of Puerto Rico Friday and the water between the
southeastern Bahamas and the Dominican Republic Friday night
through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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