[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W from 04N-15N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N
between 27W-34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 02N-13N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

A surface trough is from 18N50W to 13N53W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 04N- 18N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 12N-16N between 62W-65W. Isolated moderate
convection is elsewhere from 10N-17N between 60W-70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 08N-21N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 77W-84W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 04N-21N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from Gambia near 13N16W to 10N30W to 08N44W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
isolated moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from
07N-11N between 10W-22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from SE Georgia near
81N81W to the Florida Panhandle near 31N88W. Scattered moderate
convection is S of the front from 29N-31N between 81W-91W. S of
the front, weak surface ridging extends from the W Atlantic to the
central Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is over the
central and eastern Gulf from 23N-27N between 80W-92W to include S
Florida. 5-15 kt winds are noted over the Gulf with highest winds
along the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

In the upper levels a sharp trough extends from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche enhancing convection.

Weak pressure ridging will remain across the north-central Gulf
the next few days allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds
and relatively low seas throughout. A trough will form over the
Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons and move westward across the
Bay of Campeche at night through the period accompanied by
moderate to fresh north to northeast winds.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above.
No additional areas of convection are noted over the Caribbean.

10-25 kt easterly winds are noted over the Caribbean with
strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.

Of note in the upper levels, a sharp upper level trough extends
from E Cuba to NE Nicaragua.

Gusty winds, building seas, and thunderstorms accompany the
tropical waves. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward
Islands by mid week, and move through the eastern Caribbean later
in the week.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is off the coast of Georgia. Patches of
scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic N of 23N and
W of 74W, to include the N Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is centered
over the W Atlantic near 28N60W. Another 1024 mb high is centered
over the E Atlantic near 29N34W.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the Atlantic near 24N57W.

Over the W Atlantic, a high pressure ridge will continue to
dominate across the area for the next several days. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving westward
across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly
winds north of Hispaniola early through Tue night. Fresh to strong
southeasterly winds and building seas associated with a surface
trough will affect the waters north of Puerto Rico and Dominican
Republic Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net