[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W from 17N
southward. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Monsoon trough-
related rainshowers are from 12N southward between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 16N southward.
The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Monsoon trough-related
rainshowers are from 12N southward between 40W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 20N48W 15N50W 12N52W. The wave is
moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from
10N to 17N between 49W and 54W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W from 18N
southward. The wave is moving westward 15 knots. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N to 15N
between 61W and 64W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 10N to 18N between 55W and 65W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from SE Cuba to eastern
Jamaica, to northern Colombia, along 76W/77W. The wave is moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. The wave is moving through an area of
an upper level trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are in the waters that are between Haiti, Cuba, and
Jamaica, and elsewhere from 18N southward between 65W and 80W.

A tropical wave is moving through Central America, along 84W/85W.
The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in SE coastal Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Gambia, to 09N30W, to 08N47W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 13N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond
22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
spread out across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north central Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. This will allow for generally
gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas. A trough will
form in the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons, and move
westward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at night
through the period. Expect moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 30N68W 22N75W, to 16N80W in the
Caribbean Sea, and to Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, on the W and NW
side of the trough, and in the waters that are between Cuba,
Haiti, and Jamaica. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 30N northward between 55W and 60W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough extends from La Peninsula de la Guajira of
northern Colombia, to 09N80W in Panama, beyond southern Costa
Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers are in Lake Maracaibo, and along the border
of Colombia and Venezuela just to the west of Lake Maracaibo.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers also are in SE coastal
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 73W westward.

Two tropical waves, one is along 84W and another is along 75W,
will continue to generate rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms
across the northern half of the western Caribbean Sea, and in
the SW corner of the basin, through Tuesday. A third tropical
wave, moving across the Lesser Antilles with rainshowers, will
move across the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday and Wednesday,
increasing the winds to fresh to strong.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southernmost point of a stationary front passes through
32N75W to 31N77W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of
the line that runs from Bermuda to SE Cuba.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N55W.
Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 18N to 32N between 44W and 62W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are in the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

A ridge will continue to dominate across the forecast area
during the entire period. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and a pair of tropical waves moving westward across the
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong easterly winds north
of Hispaniola from today through Tuesday night. Fresh to strong
southeasterly winds, and building seas associated with a surface
trough, will affect the waters north of Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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