[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 17N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 10N to 20N between
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 16N
southward. Monsoon trough-related rainshowers are from 10N
southward between 40W and 50W.

A surface trough is along 18N48W 15N49W 12N50W. Rainshowers are
possible from 15N to 20N between 44W and 53W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W from 18N
southward. A tropical wave will be entering the easternmost part
of the Caribbean Sea, soon. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 08N to 18N between 50W and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W from 21N
southward. The wave is moving through the Windward Passage, and
an area of an upper level trough. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 18N to 20N between Haiti and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Mauritania near 18N16W, to 15N22W 10N26W 09N40W and 08N48W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120
nm on either side of the line 10N14W 09N28W 10N40W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 10N southward between 43W
and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle, beyond
22N98W at the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
spread out across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Weak high pressure will remain across the north central Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days. This will allow for generally
gentle to moderate winds and relatively low seas. A trough will
form in the Yucatan Peninsula in the afternoons, and move
westward into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico at night
through the period, accompanied by moderate to fresh north to
northeast winds.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 30N68W 22N75W, to 16N80W in the
Caribbean Sea, and to Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, on the W and NW
side of the trough.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough passes between Panama and 10N, between 75W in
Colombia and beyond SE Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in Colombia
from 07N to 10N between 72W in far NW Venezuela and 75W in
Colombia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea from 14N southward from 72W westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60W and 70W from 17N
southward. A tropical wave will be entering the easternmost part
of the Caribbean Sea, soon. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
between 55W and 62W from 08N to 18N.

A tropical wave along 75W will move across the rest of the
central Caribbean Sea through early Monday evening, and across
the western Caribbean Sea from Tuesday through early Wednesday
night. Another tropical wave, roughly about 100 nm east of the
Lesser Antilles, is producing scattered to numerous rainshowers
and thunderstorms south of 16N and between 55W and the Lesser
Antilles. This system will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight,
and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea from Monday through
Tuesday night, and then begin to weaken as it moves across the
central Caribbean Sea from Wednesday through Thursday night.
Expect some increase in winds and seas, and scattered showers
and thunderstorms to impact the waters through which the wave is
moving. Expect fresh to strong trades in most of the central
Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia tonight and again
Mon night, then in the eastern Caribbean Sea and the eastern
part of the central Caribbean S of 15N between 68W and 74W Tue
night and Tue night and Wed night.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The southernmost point of a cold front passes through 32N75W to
31N77W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line
that runs from Bermuda to SE Cuba.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N55W.
Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the center covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 18N to 32N between 44W and 62W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are in the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow.

A trough just east of Florida will dissipate late tonight. A
ridge will build across the forecast area in the wake of the
trough. The pressure gradient, between the ridge and two
tropical waves that are moving westward across the Caribbean
Sea, will support fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds
north of Hispaniola, including the Approaches to the Windward
Passage, during the late afternoon and evening hours through
Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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